Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2025) The decision by the Turkish central bank to accelerate the pace of its easing cycle today with a 150bp cut to its one-week repo rate, to 38.00%, was accompanied by relatively hawkish communications... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch Risks skewed towards ECB cuts in 2026 Stronger-than-expected economic data and recent comments by Isabel Schnabel have pushed up investors’ interest rate expectations for the coming years. Christine Lagarde will acknowledge the... 11th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (December 2025) The SNB shrugged off lower-than-expected inflation in the fourth quarter and kept its policy rate at zero. However, we think it will be less relaxed next year, when we expect inflation to average just... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 2025) Despite three quarters of the survey responses being gathered after the Budget, November’s RICS survey suggests buyer sentiment fell further in November even though actual housing activity and prices... 11th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Hopes for strong recovery will be disappointed Economic growth will remain subdued over the next two years as the largest economies struggle and the smaller ones outperform. Past ECB interest rate cuts will do little to boost activity because... 10th December 2025 · 28 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update New office forecasts for seven regional UK cities We have augmented our UK Commercial Property coverage with the addition of office forecasts for seven major regional cities. Overall performance is informed by our views on the RoUK market, but... 9th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: long end yields may rise, despite more rate cuts Poland’s monetary easing cycle has dragged down short-term government bond yields, but unlike in past cycles, long-term yields haven’t come down very far. Even with the policy rate now likely to fall... 8th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (October) The rise in German industrial production in October was stronger than expected but it still left output close to a post-pandemic low. And though defence spending appears to be supporting production... 8th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Key themes for global commercial real estate in 2026 As the new year approaches, we are highlighting the key themes that we think will set the overarching narrative for global commercial real estate in 2026. 5th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP easing, China-Russia relations, Bulgaria protests The softness in the latest Polish inflation and wage data means we now think this week's 25bp interest rate cut will be followed by two more next year. Russia’s finance ministry announced it had... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (December 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise... 5th December 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Minimum wage hike another headwind to employment The 4.1% rise in the minimum wage scheduled for April 2026 will support wage growth, particularly for workers on lower incomes, but by further raising businesses’ labour costs it will probably... 5th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth will remain weak The small upward revision to the euro-zone's third-quarter GDP growth, from +0.2% to +0.3% q/q, does not change our view that there has been no meaningful increase in momentum in the second half of... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Nov. 2025) The stagnation in the Halifax measure of house prices in November sends a weaker signal than the Nationwide release earlier this week. But with prices having only fallen once in the last six months... 5th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to bide its time and delay negative rates to 2026 Inflation undershot the SNB’s forecast and fell to zero in November, but we think officials are unlikely to respond by lowering the policy rate next week. By June next year, however, we think that... 4th December 2025 · 5 mins read
