UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jul. 2025) The bigger-than-expected rebound in the Nationwide measure of house prices in July shows that the recovery in the housing market after the stamp duty-induced lull is underway. While the weak labour... 1st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Q2 RICS survey shows muted euro-zone CRE recovery The latest RICS survey indicated that the recovery in occupier and investor demand in the euro-zone was muted in Q2. While the reduction in tariff uncertainty should support demand further ahead, the... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: UK insufficient climate spending; renewables in Saudi The UK government is set to guarantee higher prices for renewable developers to secure new generating capacity and provide electric vehicle subsidies to support the rollout. More broadly, though... 31st July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
BoE Watch BOE Watch: Unlike the ECB, the BoE still has much further to go The Bank of England will almost certainly cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the fifth time in this cycle, from 4.25% to 4.00% on Thursday 7th August. Our sense is that the upside risks to... 31st July 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey shows a stagnant UK commercial real estate market The RICS survey showed that occupier demand was still weak in Q2, with firms reluctant to expand in the face of higher costs and an uncertain economic outlook. In line with that, rental and capital... 31st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2025) Our indicators show that capital inflows into EMs slowed in July. Most EMs would be well-placed to cope with a bout of outflows if risk sentiment were to worsen, but there are a handful of vulnerable... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily You need to grow to be exceptional in the stock market Faster growth in earnings per share (EPS) is the main reason why equities in the US have fared better in local-currency (LC) terms than those in the euro-zone since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)... 30th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone households will remain reluctant to spend Households are still saving an unusually large share of their incomes and the latest surveys suggest that the saving rate will remain high in the near term, weighing on consumption. And while we... 30th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (July) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP growth maintained a moderate pace, at 2.0-2.5% y/y, at the start of Q3. The prices components of the... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2025) & ESI (July 2025) The slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 came as no surprise as the boost from tariff front-running waned. We expect growth to remain weak in the second half of the year . 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France and Italy GDP (Q2 2025) National data available so far suggests that euro-zone GDP growth slowed from 0.6% q/q in Q1 to either 0.1% or 0.0% in Q2, in part due to the reversal of tariff front-running. (Our projection was 0.2%... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q2 2025) The Q2 GDP data released out of Hungary and Czechia confirmed that both economies have held up reasonably well since the introduction of US tariffs in April. With the EU-US trade deal likely to deal... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook UK Housing Outlook: House prices to beat expectations in 2026 The stuttering jobs market and the softening outlook for wage growth means we now expect house prices to rise by only 2.0% in the year to Q4 2025 (3.5% previously). But our view that Bank Rate will... 29th July 2025 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Observations from the surge in EM FX bond issuance The continued rise in EM sovereign FX debt sales this year suggests that EM governments have accepted the need to issue at higher yields, but are doing so at shorter maturities than in the past. And... 29th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The EU-US trade agreement, which will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods exports to the... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
