China Economics Weekly Strength of property investment unlikely to last China’s property sector rebounded rapidly from the COVID-19 downturn as sales were lifted by a revival of pent-up demand. But with property controls still tight, the rise in sales is likely to fizzle... 4th September 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Low oil prices are supporting the recovery China’s economy is benefiting from a favourable combination of strong demand at home but weak global demand for energy and low oil prices. As a result, the current account surplus has jumped to a five... 28th August 2020 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
China Economic Outlook COVID-19 hit to fully reverse by year-end China’s success in containing COVID-19 and the short duration of its lockdown have enabled its economy to rebound rapidly. With policy support set to remain strong, China is on course to return to its... 29th July 2020 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Xi’s “new development model” is more of the same In the face of growing tensions with much of the world, Xi Jinping this week called for a “new development model” that allows China’s economy to sustain rapid growth with less dependence on other... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly The upside to China’s wary consumers Household consumption in China remained stubbornly weak in Q2 despite the rapid rebound in GDP. But this isn’t a reason to be overly concerned about the immediate outlook. With fiscal stimulus still... 17th July 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) After a sharp contraction in Q1, the economy bounced back strongly in Q2, with the level of GDP reaching a new high. What’s more, the monthly activity and spending figures show that growth was still... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Equity rally to boost growth but risks inflating a bubble Chinese equites surged this week, after state media talked up the value of a stock market rally in countering economic headwinds. Output may benefit in the short-run – at its peak the 2015 rally was... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly The cost of going it “alone” Recent developments in Hong Kong and along the border with India are putting further strain on China’s relations with the rest of the world and accelerating the process of decoupling. This will make... 3rd July 2020 · 8 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs The latest survey data suggest that economic growth accelerated in June thanks to a faster recovery in manufacturing and services, alongside continued strength in construction activity. The recovery... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Beijing adds to bond deluge, floods flag climate risks China's central government has embarked on a borrowing spree. This month's bond sales were the highest since 2007 and more is in the pipeline as the finance ministry plans to complete the issuance of... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Export sector cushioned by COVID-linked demand China’s exports have held up remarkably well in the face of the sharp slump in global activity. They contracted just 3.3% y/y in US dollar terms in May. The detailed trade data published today show... 24th June 2020 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus ramp-up points to state-led recovery Government borrowing is ramping up as China begins to implement a stimulus package whose fiscal component is as large as that in 2009. There are other similarities too: despite pledges to direct more... 5th June 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions The central government’s decision to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong risks undermining the city’s economic success and the US response may add to those headwinds. More broadly, the... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Debt-to-GDP ratio to jump by most on record this year The government’s annual work report published on Friday made clear that policymakers will engineer an acceleration in credit growth this year. The report didn’t offer an explicit target for aggregate... 27th May 2020 · 11 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) Industrial output and investment rose year-on-year in April for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak. But retail sales and services activity continued to contract, held back by high unemployment... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
