Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates to be cut below 4% With the Polish economy slowing and inflation set to fall, we have revised our interest rate forecast and have now pencilled in 100bps of rate cuts (to 3.75%). This would suggest that the recent rally... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates to be cut below 4% With the Polish economy slowing and inflation set to fall, we have revised our interest rate forecast and have now pencilled in 100bps of rate cuts (to 3.75%). This would suggest that the recent rally... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul. 12) Broad money and lending growth plumbed new lows in June, supporting our subdued forecasts for both inflation and economic growth. 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India takes hawkish tone While today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was expected, the accompanying statement is a bit more newsworthy. It makes gloomy reading. The central bank cut its growth forecast, increased... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia cuts, rates likely to fall further The decision on Friday night by the Colombian Central Bank (BANREP) to cut interest rates followed deterioration in the performance of the economy. The Bank’s dovish comments suggest that rates could... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report to leave door open to more stimulus Having extended its asset purchases at July’s meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to make any changes to its quantitative easing QE) programme this week. We expect more QE and a... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are consumers retreating? Our measure of Canada's 'effective' crude oil price, a blend of three key benchmarks, has rebounded by a sharp 25% over the past few weeks, to US$88 p/b from US$70 p/b. But this rally in crude oil... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to worry over spike in agricultural prices The prices of many agricultural commodities have risen strongly over the past couple of months, raising fears of a sharp rise in inflation across the region. However, we believe the recent spike in... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil still struggling The Brazilian economy continues to struggle. Having expanded by a meagre 0.2% q/q in the first quarter of this year, there are few signs that growth picked up in Q2. Elsewhere in the region, growth... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch More bond purchases, but no boost for the ESM Despite President Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro, the ECB appears unlikely to follow up July’s interest rate cut with further significant policy announcements at... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold as balance of payments troubles persist The decision by Egypt’s Central Bank (CBE) to keep interest rates on hold was unsurprising. Although the economy is weak and inflationary pressures subdued, political instability will keep pressure on... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cut in the Philippines, more loosening likely by year-end The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) today cut its policy rate by 25bp to 3.75%. With inflationary pressures set to remain low and global demand likely to disappoint this year, we expect further policy... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The latest monetary data provide no indication that the ECB’s earlier liquidity measures are prompting banks to lend more to the wider economy. 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weak global demand to hamper growth Compared with other emerging regions, Asia is relatively well placed to withstand sluggish global growth. For one thing, policymakers have the ability and willingness to significantly loosen monetary... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Economy not weak enough to trigger QE3 next week As it stands at the moment, the incoming news has probably not been quite weak enough to prompt the Fed into providing more policy stimulus, such as a third round of asset purchases (QE3), at the... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Drop in Polish savings rate points to consumer slowdown The strength of Polish consumer spending over the past couple of years has only been made possible by a run-down in the household savings rate. But with the savings rate now at a record low and real... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
