US Economics Weekly Fed may yet need more policy tricks If the experiences of the Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan are anything to go by, the Fed's pledge to keep rates low "at least through mid-2013" supports our new forecast that 10 year Treasury yields... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Another pause for Peru as policymakers take shelter Peru’s Central Bank (BCRP) kept interest rates at 4.25% for the third successive month last night as policymakers wait to see if the worst of the global market storm has passed over. In the very near... 13th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Super-strong Swiss franc hits Hungary & Poland The latest surge in the Swiss franc has turned the spotlight once again on Emerging Europe’s foreign currency debt problem. As it happens, only Hungary, Poland and Croatia have significant amounts of... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What more can the SNB do? The Swiss National Bank has not exhausted all options to stem the franc’s appreciation and might yet try capital controls or direct intervention in currency markets. But internationally co-ordinated... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank in wait-and-see mode The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its base rate at 3.25% today, as expected. Volatility in the financial markets and concerns over the outlook for the global economy are likely to keep the BoK on the... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Interest rates on hold until 2013? The latest Mexican Inflation Report confirms that policymakers are in no mood to begin monetary tightening. The recent global market turmoil underlines that the downside risks to Mexican growth that... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What more can the SNB do? The Swiss National Bank has not exhausted all options to stem the franc’s appreciation and might yet try capital controls or direct intervention in currency markets. But internationally co-ordinated... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could German courts block the bail-outs? The ongoing case in the German Constitutional Court against providing financial support for Greece is unlikely to lead to an outright ban on bail-outs. But the court could insist that Germany is... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Aug.) July’s consumer prices figures confirmed that June’s surprise drop in CPI inflation was just a blip. But the fact that the rise last month was driven by a pick-up in the core rate does not mean that... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's longer low rate pledge won't change much The Fed's pledge to keep interest rates exceptionally low for much longer than previously won't significantly boost the real economy. Admittedly, the chances of QE3 have risen. But the rebound in core... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What's next for the Bank of Japan? The recent slide in the Nikkei and the continued strength of the yen point to the economy and the exchange rate moving in opposite directions, driven by different forces. The policy prescription... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia extends pause amid market jitters Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its reference rate on hold at 6.75% today, as expected. Declining headline inflation and greater uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy were the main factors... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s slowing inflation makes another pause probable Slowing inflation in Chile raises the probability of a second successive pause at this month’s monetary policy meeting. What’s more, a weakening external backdrop will make policymakers more reluctant... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB softens its stance The ECB was bolder than expected today, upping its support for the banking sector and embarking on a new bout of bond purchases to help the peripheral economies. The Bank claimed that these measures... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will intervention weaken the yen for long? The success of today’s intervention to reduce the value of the yen may prove short-lived, so long as the strong forces pushing the currency higher remain intact. Nonetheless, we still think the yen is... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s monetary policy experiment gets risky The decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to raise its overnight borrowing rate and cut its benchmark 7-day repo rate could do more harm than good: the rise in the overnight rate risks attracting... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
