US Fed Watch Fed poised to launch QE3 It now seems highly likely that the Fed will launch a third round of large-scale asset purchases (QE3) at next week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday 13th September. We expect QE3 to... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand still likely to loosen monetary policy The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today, as was widely expected. Healthy domestic demand is cushioning the blow from soft exports, but we think persistent global weakness will... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: second-half recovery looks like wishful thinking Despite government efforts to stimulate the economy, there is scant evidence of a rebound in Argentine growth. Rampant inflation is eating into real wage growth and squeezing household spending, while... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Latest figures compound fiscal dilemma The poor run of public borrowing figures and growing calls for the Government to do more to support the economy have intensified the fiscal dilemma facing the Chancellor. 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) August’s ISM manufacturing index gives the Fed another green light to launch QE3 next week. Such action is warranted, but it won’t dramatically alter the economic landscape. 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing weakens further in August The industrial slowdown which began in the second quarter has accelerated and is affecting advanced and emerging economies alike. GDP is likely to contract in the euro-zone and Japan in Q3, while... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Prospect of QE3 whets investors' appetite The prospect of further unconventional policy stimulus from the Fed and a summer lull in the euro-zone crisis supported risky assets in August. Nonetheless, we expect any extra boost to prices from... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Dismal growth picture suggests more stimulus likely With the £50bn of extra asset purchases announced in July still underway, there is no immediate pressure on the MPC to do more this month. Nonetheless, the increasing sense of gloom about the UK’s... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke further paves the path towards QE3 Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke used his speech at Jackson Hole today to state that unconventional monetary policy does work and that the US needs more of it. It now appears even more likely that at the... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's current account deficit sound? Canada's current account deficit is likely to widen due to slower forecast global economic growth and lower commodity prices. That said, the large net financial deficit of households indicates that... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia's consumers far from immune to global problems We expect global demand to stay weak in coming quarters and for labour markets and consumer confidence in Asia to soften as a result. Central banks in the region are likely to ease further, which... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Household borrowing recovered in July after it was depressed by temporary factors in June. Nonetheless, the big picture is that borrowing growth remains very weak. 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Bond purchases on hold, but other measures possible We expect the ECB to disappoint markets this week with its plans for peripheral government bond purchases. President Mario Draghi is likely to state that such purchases will be limited and that they... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slowdown in Poland set to prompt rate cuts Poland remains one of Emerging Europe’s strongest performing economies. But a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q2 means that it is looking likely that the National Bank will cut interest rates by... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Persistent imbalances in the drivers of growth Growth is still unbalanced in many parts of Latin America. The resilience of domestic demand against a weak global backdrop has helped to bolster service sector activity, even as local industry... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: modest recovery to keep rates lower than most expect The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) lowered interest rates by a further 50bps last night and hinted that the end of the current easing cycle may now be very close. We think that the consensus expectation... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
