UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) November’s Inflation Report provided some superficial support for expectations that interest rates will rise sooner than the MPC suggested back in August. But we still think that the disinflationary... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia hikes, but rate tightening cycle is probably over Bank Indonesia’s decision to hike interest rates today is largely aimed at easing pressure on the current account and stabilising the rupiah. But the lagged impact of substantial rate increases in the... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB has more work to do to tackle the strong euro Last week’s cut in ECB interest rates has helped to relieve some of the near-term upward pressure on the euro. But the central bank will have to work harder to stop the strong currency from snuffing... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Moving the goal posts could dent the Fed's credibility Lowering the unemployment rate threshold would appear to be a neat way for the Fed to commit to leaving interest rates at near-zero for longer and perhaps offset any tightening in financial conditions... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate cut to provide only a little boost The ECB’s unexpected interest rate cut last week was certainly a pleasant surprise and suggests that it is not writing off the potential threat of deflation. But there was little in the press... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report could raise rate expectations This week’s Bank of England Inflation Report looks likely to include a downward revision to the MPC’s forecast for the unemployment rate, bringing forward the date at which it is expected to hit the 7... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia still happy to bide its time The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept interest rates on hold today and gave little indication that it is about to loosen policy to support the struggling economy. 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru follows Chile’s lead with surprise rate cut Peru surprised markets with an interest rate cut last night, becoming the latest in a line of Latin American central banks to launch into easing mode in 2013. Although the timing of yesterday’s rate... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fall in gilt yields not a sign forward guidance is working The MPC should think twice before concluding that the fall in interest rate expectations and gilt yields in recent months is a sign that markets are coming around to its views on the economic outlook... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Encouraging start to the fourth quarter Global growth appears to have accelerated in October, as suggested by the rise in business surveys to their highest levels since early 2011. After accelerating in Q3, the US economy seems to have... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rate cut welcome, but not a game-changer While the ECB’s largely unexpected decision to cut interest rates was welcome, the central bank cannot address the deep-seated problems still facing the currency union. 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Bank pulls the trigger on unconventional easing Faced with growing concerns about deflation, the Czech National Bank voted to ease monetary policy further today by intervening in the foreign exchange market to weaken the koruna. Few details were... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC probably united ahead of Inflation Report With the economic recovery proceeding more quickly than the MPC expected, but little pressure on forward guidance’s knockouts, today’s decision to leave policy unchanged was probably a unanimous one... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hike in Malaysia likely in first half of 2014 Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. As the economy gains a firmer footing on the back of improving export prospects over the next year, we expect... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a problem is local government debt? China’s local governments have taken on unhealthy amounts of debt over the last few years but, unlike many, we do not think this should rank among policymakers’ primary concerns. Instead, we would... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack ECB likely to soften stance but refrain from action The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to a four year low of 0.7% has raised the prospect of a bout of outright deflation in the euro-zone economy. While cost pressures are not as weak as they were when... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
