UK Economics Update Further rate cut looks likely A further interest rate cut is looking increasing likely. We have pencilled in a 25bps reduction in November, taking official rates to 0.25%. And it is possible that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Olympics explains part of the employment puzzle A close look at last week’s figures suggests that some of the apparent divergence between the strong employment and weak GDP figures may be explained by the Olympics. Come Games time, more than 100... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Political tensions on the rise in Thailand Political tensions have intensified in Thailand due to the government’s efforts to amend the constitution. There is a significant chance that the proposed reforms could trigger a political deadlock... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Hopes of near-term policy boost fade further Developments last week confirmed that support for the periphery from the region’s core governments will be slow in coming. Some attention has turned back to the ECB for policy support, but it has very... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rates more likely to fall than rise The Mexican Central Bank (BANXICO) left interest rates on hold at 4.5% this afternoon. Strong economic growth and a recent pick-up in inflation mean that the three-year pause may last a while longer... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun. 12) June's rise in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 2.0% from 1.8%, mainly reflects transportation base year effects. With inflation expectations well anchored and economic growth likely to remain... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly QE3 now a 50-50 call It is a very close call as to whether the Fed will launch a third round of large-scale asset purchases in the second half of this year. We expect growth to continue slightly below the economy's... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why we expect weaker growth than the IMF The IMF downgraded its global growth forecasts last week including those for Japan, but they still remain well above our own. In this Weekly we explain why our forecasts differ from theirs and where... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Disappointing activity data point to rate cuts The latest activity data from Colombia indicate that the economy slowed further in Q2. As a result, while policymakers may await concrete evidence that the recent consumer credit boom has ended, it... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation eases slightly, further rate cuts on horizon There has been no let-up in the bad news from India. Economic activity remained very weak in the second quarter of the year while inflation is still above 7%. This combination is set to persist in the... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish Bank maintains easing stance but risks still high While keeping interest rates on hold today, Turkey’s central bank is maintaining its policy of gradually easing monetary conditions. But given the combination of a still-large current account deficit... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Price pressures have eased across the Middle East Inflation pressures are easing in most countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. The drop in global commodity prices has led to a fall in food price inflation across the region. Meanwhile... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Worrying signs from Argentina’s central bank Judging by the latest data, Argentina’s new Central Bank Charter has cemented the BCRA’s role as a state-financing vehicle. With the economy on the brink of recession, we suspect that the government... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market health belies talk of hard landing China’s economy is growing at one of the slowest rates in years but the labour market is showing few signs of strain. Migrant wages were up 13% y/y last quarter. There are still more jobs being... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada's new economic forecasts, presented in its July Monetary Policy Report, still look too optimistic, mainly because of its rosy domestic assumptions. Although the bank's lower near... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul.) & Labour market (May/Jun.) The vote to do more quantitative easing (QE) this month was not unanimous, but the tone of the minutes was nonetheless pretty dovish. We still expect more asset purchases to be announced before the... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
