Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s monetary policy experiment gets risky The decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to raise its overnight borrowing rate and cut its benchmark 7-day repo rate could do more harm than good: the rise in the overnight rate risks attracting... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Struggling recovery needs low interest rates The MPC’s decision to re-launch its quantitative easing programme today confirms that the Committee finally recognises that the major threat to the UK is renewed recession, not inflation. But previous... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Pork prices fell in the second half of July. It is too soon to sound the all-clear. But given that consumer price inflation in everything except pork was stable over the first half of the year, this... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey MPC meeting to focus on the lira The Central Bank of Turkey has announced that the MPC will hold an (unscheduled) interim meeting tomorrow, which, it seems, is likely to result in fresh measures to prevent a disorderly adjustment in... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB action unlikely to stem the franc’s rise The Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut interest rates to almost zero and embark on a renewed bout of quantitative easing to stem the franc’s appreciation looks pretty bold. But we still think that... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB action unlikely to stem the franc’s rise The Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut interest rates to almost zero and embark on a renewed bout of quantitative easing to stem the franc’s appreciation looks pretty bold. But we still think that... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch QE3 still unlikely, at least until next year As the recent slowdown in economic growth and the rebound in the unemployment rate have come at a time when core inflation has risen rapidly, the Fed is unlikely to announce a third round of asset... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Squeeze on real pay to worsen With the economic recovery still struggling to regain momentum, we have recently lowered our forecasts for consumer spending and GDP growth this year. We now expect a 1.5% drop in real spending. We... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Intervention increasingly likely as yen strengthens further The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board is unlikely to announce any major monetary policy initiatives at the two-day meeting which concludes on Friday. However, the continued strength of the yen makes... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Monetary policy in Pakistan becomes increasingly haphazard In an unexpected move, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) at the weekend cut its main policy rate by 50bp to 13.5%. The cut came despite continued strong inflationary pressures, and follows growing... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Risk of rate rise now pretty low The run of weaker news on the economic recovery has made a near-term interest rate rise even less likely than before. We expect this message to be re-iterated in August’s Inflation Report, published... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates close to peaking The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) raised interest rates by 25bps to 4.5% late on Friday night. Strong activity data and rising inflation may prompt some further hikes in the very near term. But... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Downgrade, default or both? Even if the politicians finally get their act together and agree a deficit reduction package, the resulting spending cuts may not be large enough to appease the credit rating agencies. As such, we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a US default mean for Asia? Policymakers across the region are rightly concerned about the potential consequences of a debt crisis in the US. We believe that the impact on Emerging Asia’s economies of a one or two notch... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to remain in hawkish mode for now At August’s press conference, the ECB is likely to keep its options open over the likely near-term path of interest rates. But given the further decline in business and consumer sentiment and growing... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s “insurance cut” to be reversed in September The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has signalled that its policy rate will soon be raised from a post-earthquake emergency level, provided its worst fears for the global economy do not materialise... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
