Asia Economics Weekly Falling current account surpluses are not to be feared Current account deficits in India and Indonesia have rightly caused some concern, but elsewhere in Asia the trend towards smaller current account surpluses should be welcomed. 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can retailers rebuild their margins? The outlook for retailers’ costs is brighter than it has been for many years. That said, with only a weak recovery in household incomes in prospect and competitive pressures likely to intensify... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rate cut is probably a one-off We do not think that today’s unexpected interest rate cut by the Mexican central bank signals the onset of an aggressive easing cycle. Indeed, with forward-looking indicators suggesting thateconomic... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB strikes balance between optimism and support President Draghi walked a tightrope today in acknowledging the nascent recovery while at the same time trying not to raise markets’ interest rate expectations. We think that he will fulfil his pledge... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: solid start to Q3 could delay monetary easing Today’s IMACEC activity indicator revealed that Chile’s economy picked up pace at the start of Q3. This is unlikely to signal a turn in the economic cycle following two quarters of slowing growth, but... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No-change decision could mask split vote The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unsurprisingly left policy on hold today in the wake of its recent introduction of forward guidance on interest rates and the stronger economic news. But if markets... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Central bank in Malaysia to hike rates next year Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. We expect the BNM to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year before hiking by 25bp as it looks to reduce... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan reiterates support for consumption tax hikes Governor Kuroda today underlined the Bank of Japan’s view – already reflected in its economic forecasts – that the planned consumption tax hikes will neither derail the recovery nor prevent inflation... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic-Sep The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What should we make of India’s latest reforms? The new governor of India’s central bank has arrived with a package of reforms that should settle the nerves of investors. However, the government has not been playing its part, making little progress... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish Although the Bank of Canada retained its tightening bias word for word, it now admits that the continuing weakness in exports and investment mean hopes of a smooth 'rotation in demand' look less... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery quickens as productivity rebounds The run of positive economic news has continued, with quarterly GDP growth in Q2 revised up to 0.7% and August’s CIPS/Markit PMIs pointing to even stronger growth in Q3. The divergence between output... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Shift towards tighter policy in Poland looks some way off Governor Belka provided few clues at his post-MPC press conference about when the Polish National Bank might shift towards tightening mode. But with the economic recovery unlikely to be accompanied by... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why is ‘forward guidance’ failing to anchor long-term Gilts? The MPC’s commitment to keep interest rates on hold has failed to prevent the yield on 10-year Gilts rising by more than that on US Treasuries. But we think the difference in monetary policy prospects... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Business and household prospects diverging The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP only added to the uncertainty about the planned consumption tax hikes. The latest monthly data have mostly been favourable, notably the buoyancy of business... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
