UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul 13.) Household borrowing is continuing to expand, but fairly modestly. Despite fears that the Bank of England’s commitment to low interest rates will spark another credit boom, the main problem still seems... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug. 13 ) The improving trend in consumer sentiment provides some hope that the recent rises in household spending will be maintained even though consumers’ real incomes are still being squeezed. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jul.) Today’s industrial production and labour market data show that the recovery should continue in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the ongoing rise in consumer price inflation is still largely a reflection... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi won't firm up his guidance While the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic prospects suggests that a further cut in interest rates is unlikely in the near future, President Draghi will no doubt repeat the relatively... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slower growth in Indonesia likely after recent rate hikes The extent of the latest rout in emerging market currencies has prompted comparisons with previous crises, such as that in the autumn of 2008. But we suspect some recovery may be around the corner... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates to rise by less than market expects Brazil’s decision to hike interest rates by a further 50bp last night will have been bolstered by the extent of the recent slide in the real. But the rise in market rate expectations over the past... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The sharp drop in retail sales in July casts doubt on the ability of “Abenomics“ to boost private consumption. While hot weather may have prevented consumers from spending, there are a number of... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank still pinning hopes on an unlikely export-led recovery The Bank of Canada is unlikely to make any major changes in its upcoming policy announcement next Wednesday (4th September), but the recent surge in Canadian long-term interest rates could prompt the... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Gilts may yet decouple from Treasuries While yields on gilts have continued to track those on US Treasuries closely, some decoupling is still possible. For one, both central banks have tied their monetary policy to the unemployment rate... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Carney’s words fall on deaf ears Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gave an unambiguously dovish maiden speech today but he still seems to be fighting a losing battle against the financial markets. It is looking as though the MPC... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug.) August’s improvement in the CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that the underlying recovery in the retail sector has strengthened further. But the fact that retailers have been unable to push... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What might the next twist in Turkish monetary policy be? The Turkish central bank appears ready to add to its policy toolkit in order to support the lira. No details have been provided yet, but our best guess is that, if new measures are introduced, they... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The continued weakness of the euro-zone monetary data in July suggests that the pick-up in the real economy rests on fragile foundations. 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle slowing down The fact that the Hungarian central bank cut interest rates by just 20bp today highlights that, even though the forint came through the recent EM sell-off relatively well, Hungary is still highly... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending continues its ascent Real household spending saw a further expansion in Q2, its seventh successive quarterly rise. But with earnings growth still subdued, the recovery’s foundations are hardly watertight. Nonetheless... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June's 1.2% m/m decline in retail sales volumes, which only partially reversed the 1.9% m/m gain in the month before, confirms that, over the second quarter as a whole, household consumption growth... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
