Asia Economics Update Rates in Korea to remain on hold until 2015 With the economic recovery gaining momentum, but inflationary pressures still low, the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to keep interest rates on hold came as no surprise. We think interest rates will... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates and maybe more next month The ECB signalled very strongly at today’s press conference that policy will be loosened next month. A small cut in the main refinancing rate seems like the least that the Bank could do and is... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Low inflation keeps the MPC on hold While the strength of the housing market may have made for an animated discussion at today’s MPC meeting, the benign inflation outlook suggests that tighter monetary policy is still not a near-term... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia on the verge of tightening monetary policy Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) opted to keep its policy rate at 3.0% today, but the case for monetary tightening is building, and we think BNM could hike rates as early as its next meeting in July. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery robust but housing market concerns build The last month’s data has provided further evidence that the UK economy is enjoying a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of solid, but not excessive, growth and low inflation. The latest PMI surveys suggest that... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening likely in the Philippines The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left interest rates on hold today but hiked the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by a further 100 basis points, as it looks to reduce rising risks in the... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Growth slowdown to delay rate hikes in Norway until 2016 The Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today and we continue to think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking until 2016. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Growth slowdown to delay rate hikes in Norway until 2016 The Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today and we continue to think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking until 2016. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack West outperforming East The US is enjoying a strong rebound after its weather-induced slowdown, the UK has extended its period of rapid growth into Q2 and the recovery in the euro-zone has gained momentum. On the other hand... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC raises prospect of ending “forward guidance” The Polish MPC hinted at today’s post-meeting press conference that it may not extend its pledge to leave interest rates unchanged beyond Q3. While this could be interpreted as a sign that the MPC is... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation to trump Riksbank's household debt concerns The Riksbank’s report on household indebtedness underscores the magnitude of the problem and the need for it to be addressed. But we continue to think that the Bank will cut interest rates as... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Have the ECB's contingencies been met? The latest economic data have left the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action – a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of the money markets –... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update QE taper does not explain Q1 GDP weakness A few commentators have suggested that the weakness in first-quarter GDP, which may even have contracted slightly, could be due to the Fed's decision late last year to begin tapering its monthly asset... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Global interest rates likely to diverge sharply With the world economy gradually recovering, it is tempting to assume that there will be a global monetary policy tightening cycle in the coming years. However, we think US interest rates will return... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian monetary policy to remain loose for prolonged period With inflation in Romania set to rise over the second half of this year, it seems unlikely that there will be further interest rate cuts. But equally, large amounts of spare capacity in the economy... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia more likely to cut than hike rates later in 2014 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% at its meeting today, and re-iterated that it does not expect to make any changes in the near term. 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
