ECB Watch Green light for July hike ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will use Thursday’s post rate-announcement press conference to signal another rise in interest rates at the following meeting in July. But with growing signs that the... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary indicators show that broad money growth remains exceptionally weak, suggesting that the recent slowdown in the pace of economic recovery may be more than just a temporary soft... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's central bank to continue raising repo rate The Bank of Thailand (BoT) hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0% today, as expected. The economy grew at an above-trend pace at the start of the year, while price pressures should continue to mount in... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains cautious The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning highlighted that ultimately it will raise rates at some point, this year or next year, but even then it said the extent of any policy... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rates edge higher The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 4.0% last night. With domestic demand still driving strong economic growth and inflation likely to peak higher than policymakers... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much further will China tighten? Monetary conditions in China are no longer particularly loose and efforts to “normalise” policy are probably nearer to completion than generally believed. We expect three more reserve ratio increases... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter growth slowdown The week ahead will be dominated by first quarter GDP and the Bank of Canada's policy decision. We estimate that Canada's economy grew by 3.7% annualised in the first quarter. Temporary disruptions to... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates to stay on hold As expected, the Central Bank of Mexico (BANXICO) held interest rates at 4.5% this afternoon. Rising food and energy inflation will test the nerve of policymakers over the coming months, but with core... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest data show that euro-zone money and credit growth remain subdued. Of course, with headline inflation well above target, this won’t stop the ECB from raising interest rates again over the... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada in no hurry to raise rates It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank will refrain from offering hints of imminent rate... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rates to edge higher but peak by Q4 Concerns over rising inflation have displaced fears about speculative capital inflows and excessive currency appreciation at the top of the list of policy priorities. Interest rates look set to rise... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s central bank looking for fiscal reforms to deliver In a move that was widely anticipated, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) left its policy rate unchanged at 14.0% over the weekend. The upcoming FY2011-12 budget and subsequent fiscal developments will... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to announce further easing by year-end Even though Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura today dropped his call for another increase in the asset purchases, our view is still that it is only a question of “when”, rather than “if”, the Bank of... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation fears to fade by the end of the year Inflation is causing serious headaches for policymakers across Emerging Europe. With the exception of the Czech Republic, headline CPI ticked up everywhere last month, and is now well above target in... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The annual growth rate of money, including our measure of the M3 aggregate, continued to accelerate in April. Nevertheless, at a time when T-bill rates have fallen even closer to zero, we suspect this... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Latest data keeps pressure on Reserve Bank of India Headline inflation fell slightly in April but is likely to rise again in the coming few months. Meanwhile, indicators of activity suggest economic growth in India is still rapid. The upshot is that we... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
