Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep policy rate on hold Following a 25bp cut to its policy rate last month, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) adopted a wait-and-see approach today and kept the benchmark rate unchanged. With demand still fragile, we expect... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB’s QE unlikely to be the panacea that markets hope The ECB looks increasingly willing to implement some form of explicit quantitative easing (QE) soon. However, the market impacts may be smaller and more varied than widely hoped. 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Five key questions on QE in the euro-zone The European Central Bank (ECB) appears finally to be seriously considering the option of implementing quantitative easing (QE). While we have long argued that QE in the euro-zone was a more likely... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar 14.) The expansion in the broad money aggregates has ground to a halt in the last two months. Bank lending is slowing now, too, even though financial conditions remain very accommodative. 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Asia’s Q1 GDP data Most economies in the region are due to release Q1 GDP data over the next few weeks. OurGDP tracker suggests economic growth was broadly unchanged in Emerging Asia (excludingChina) from Q4. The Newly... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Negative rates are no silver bullet on their own A negative interest rate on banks' excess reserves at the ECB might have some effect on banks' behaviour and at least prove that the ECB is prepared to follow its dovish words with action. But it must... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The Bank of Canada retained its neutral rate bias in its latest policy statement and emphasised that, despite the lower Canadian dollar, core inflation will still take about two years to return to... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook West to outperform East The world economy should expand steadily in the coming two years, helped by an increasingly strong recovery in the US. However, while the euro-zone has stabilised, it is not growing fast enough to... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB belatedly waking up to deflation dangers Recent speeches from officials suggest that the ECB has finally accepted that the threat of deflation in the euro-zone warrants further policy action. But it is far from clear that any action will be... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets shouldn't place so much trust in the Fed The markets have begun to heed the Fed’s bizarre warnings to ignore its own interest rate projections. But they shouldn’t be so trusting, especially when the minutes of the mid-March FOMC meeting... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rates on hold – some small cuts possible this year Peruvian interest rates were left unchanged at 4% last night and we think that high inflation and a large current account deficit mean that there is little room for aggressive easing this year as... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rate cuts looking unlikely as inflation outlook deteriorates Egyptian inflation has fallen back in recent months as the effects of last year’s sharp depreciation of the pound have started to unwind. But with the economy starting to recover and the outlook for... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers persist The recovery in the European economy appears to have picked up a bit of speed in the early months of 2014. The euro-zone now looks set to expand by 1% or more this year, a significant improvement on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rate hikes remain distant given inflation outlook With inflation falling and plenty of slack still left in the labour market, today’s no-change decision by the MPC is likely to have been unanimous again. And with the UK set for a favourable period of... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Bank of Korea governor in no rush to tighten policy The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates on hold today for the eleventh consecutive month in what was Lee Ju-yeol’s first meeting as new governor. As a former deputy governor with 35 years of... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on the sidelines for time being We anticipate that the Bank of Canada will retain its neutral bias on rates in next week's policy statement, although some dovish tweaks might surprise markets. Economic growth remains unbalanced... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
