Asia Economics Update India’s latest data underline stagflation problem India’s latest data releases underline the challenges faced by the country and its new central bank governor. Today’s inflation data show that wholesale price inflation accelerated and consumer price... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s retail sales data suggest that in response to the recent gains in employment, equity prices, house prices and the modest improvement in the availability of credit, households have started to... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German minimum wage won’t rebalance the euro-zone Germany seems set to introduce a national minimum wage after September’s election. But it will probably do little to boost German consumer spending or to rebalance the euro-zone more generally. 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Chilean monetary policy? By all accounts this week’s interest rate decision in Chile is set to be a close call. We’re forecasting a 25bp cut to 4.75% but acknowledge that a slightly firmer tone to the recent economic data... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rates to stay on hold for three years (probably) The MPC took a bold step with its forward guidance on interest rates last week, although the various “knockouts” left some wondering whether it created more confusion than it cleared up. Indeed, the... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India’s new central bank governor to keep a tight rein Last week India appointed Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist at the IMF, as the new governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI). The new governor takes over at a tricky time, with India’s economy... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could the MPC have been bolder with its threshold? While the MPC has emphasised that interest rates will not automatically rise when unemployment reaches 7%, the Committee could arguably have been bolder in setting a lower threshold. 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia bides its time The Central Bank of Russia kept interest rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement provides some hints that policy may start to be eased over the coming months. Even so, dramatic cuts in... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rates on hold, cuts still unlikely this year Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru has done little to alter our baseline view that interest rates are going nowhere this year. We expect the economy to weaken in the coming months, however... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Delayed income may be helping to drive recovery Given the headwinds that still face the economy, identifying what is driving the recent momentum in the economy is a puzzle. One factor which might be playing a role is the shifting of income by high... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns ease in Brazil and Mexico July’s data will help to allay inflation concerns in Latin America’s two largest economies – Brazil and Mexico. Inflation fell back to within target range in both countries and looks set to remain... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Impact of forward guidance is greater than it seems The absence of a fall in market interest rates after yesterday’s forward guidance does not mean that the tactic has been ineffective, as evidence shows it had a significant impact before it was... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q2) Low interest rates and lender forbearance are keeping mortgage possessions at levels which pose little threat to the outlook for house prices. But a meaningful drop in mortgage arrears is unlikely... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan may still have to ease further The Bank of Japan’s decision today to refrain from any additional easing on top of that already planned reflects the Board’s conviction that the measures taken so far are working. But with signs... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No change in Korean rates on the horizon The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to keep interest rates on hold today was no great surprise given continued low inflation and recent signs of a pick-up in GDP growth. We expect to see rates on hold... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data likely to provide grounds for optimism The raft of GDP data due over the next few weeks is likely to show that growth in Emerging Europe picked up in the second quarter of this year. However, while the region as a whole seems to have... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
