BoE Watch MPC to introduce stronger forward guidance The main event this month is likely to be the announcement of formal forward guidance. We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to commit to keep official interest rates low until an unemployment... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Today's retail sales figures suggest that consumer spending will again have given a solid boost to GDP growth in Q2. However, sales in June were lower than a month before, and surveys suggest that... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market resilient to slowdown in GDP growth Although the recent incoming data have suggested that second-quarter GDP growth could be particularly disappointing, with a sub 1.0% reading possible, we still expect the Fed to begin tapering its... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB’s monetary pillar is still very weak Last week’s euro-zone data revealed a further pick-up in some measures of real economic activity, with the composite PMI for July raising the prospect that the region’s two-year recession could come... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stronger consumption growth unlikely to last The evidence suggests that, after a paltry 0.9% annualised in the first quarter, second-quarter real consumption growth accelerated to 3.0% annualised. Unfortunately, we suspect that consumption... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Public debt levels unlikely to rise sharply The twin tailwinds of debt relief programmes from Western governments and high commodity prices have helped to dramatically reduce public debt levels in sub-Saharan Africa over the past few years. But... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Moving towards a rate cut? With indicators of economic activity improving slightly, the ECB is unlikely to cut interest rates this month. Meanwhile, divisions within the Governing Council might prevent it from clarifying last... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in the Philippines to rise next year The decision by the Philippine central bank (BSP) to leave interest rates on hold today was no great surprise given that growth remains strong and inflation looks set to stay subdued. We expect... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Faster growth reduces the need for rate cuts in Korea Data released today show that Korea’s economy picked up in Q2 on the back of stronger consumption and investment. Although low inflation means policymakers still have scope to cut interest rates, with... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rates to remain low Despite worries that the housing market may be showing signs of overheating, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today. We expect the cash rate to remain on... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed not quite ready to begin QE tapering There is only a remote chance that the Fed will make any major changes at the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (31st July), waiting instead until September to begin... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Thinking about the new "new normal" There are reasons to believe that the recent period of sluggish economic growth and near-zero interest rates are coming to a close. While the economy's potential growth rate is probably now only... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Employment gains mean that QE3 tapering still on track Even as estimates for second-quarter GDP growth have been revised lower in response to the disappointing incoming news on activity, the continued resilience of monthly employment gains has persuaded... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: naira weakness makes interest rate cuts unlikely The weakness of the naira over the past few months has made it increasingly unlikely that the Central Bank of Nigeria will cut interest rates this year. We now expect the policy rate to remain on hold... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s turn to “forward guidance” less bold than at first sight The National Bank of Hungary’s commitment to cut interest rates to a new record low of 3.0-3.5% over the coming months appears to be a bold step into the world of “forward guidance”. But the reality... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) The robust 1.9% m/m gain in May's retail sales volumes, together with earlier reports showing strong increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade, suggest that the economy grew by as much as 0.4% in... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
