Asia Economics Weekly Rate hikes coming in New Zealand With New Zealand’s economic recovery gaining momentum, inflation rising and house prices booming, the country’s central bank looks set to hike interest rates on Wednesday for the first time in nearly... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB bolsters guidance, but may still need to act The ECB opted to keep its policy powder dry today, preferring instead to strengthen its verbal forward guidance by emphasising the large amount of slack in the economy. But we still think it may need... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A sixth year of record low rates lies ahead The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, marking five years since they reached their record low, is likely to be repeated many more times. With recent news suggesting the MPC’s estimate of... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s rate hike around the corner Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today as expected, but with the economy gradually gaining a firmer footing, a 25bp rate hike is unlikely to be far away. 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC extends "forward guidance" While the National Bank of Poland pledged to keep interest rates unchanged until at least the end of Q3 this afternoon, we think that the weakness of inflation should allow the MPC to leave interest... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada maintains neutral bias Although the Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% today and maintained its neutral bias, we suspect that the emphasis on the recent rebound in inflation in the accompanying statement... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate hikes still on the cards The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) was able to keep interest rates on hold today as the shilling has remained stable despite the recent turmoil in EM currency markets. But a large current account deficit... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: peso weakness unlikely to trigger interest rate hikes In contrast to several other emerging markets (EMs), Colombian policymakers have continued to refrain from taking steps to prevent the peso from weakening. As such, unless the currency begins to... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Five years of 0.5% rates, at least one more to go March’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will mark the fifth anniversary of interest rates falling to their record low of 0.5% in 2009. Since the MPC only set out its new guidance last month... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates to stay on hold for now The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 2.5% today, as expected. For now, policy loosening looks to be off the agenda, but we suspect that a rate cut will be needed later in the year... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch at the National People’s Congress The National People’s Congress meeting that starts in Beijing this week will give us a chance to review progress on economic reform since the Third Plenum and to gauge where the leadership’s immediate... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The latest PMI surveys confirm the continued slowdown in manufacturing. We think the outlook for the sector remains downbeat. Despite the recent surge in liquidity we suspect that policymakers will... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stars still aligned for more ECB support Despite last week's stronger than expected euro-zone inflation figures, the combination of still very weak price pressures, the strong euro and recent falls in liquidity in the banking sector still... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed needs to revise forward guidance soon There is a strong possibility that February's labour market figures, due out this Friday, will only make the Fed's job even harder. There is a chance that the unemployment rate could have hit the 6.5%... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the recent drop in the ruble Events in Ukraine have been one factor behind the fall in the Russian ruble, but domestic problems have played a role too. The central bank (CBR) has already voiced its concern that exchange rate... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is QQE working? Almost one year after the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) by the Bank of Japan, the policy is working as well as could reasonably be expected. However, despite initial signs of... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
