US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Broad money growth has stabilised at a healthy rate, but the further slowdown in the growth rate of bank lending is disconcerting. 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Monetary policy to remain loose even with Fed tapering Our research has consistently emphasised that monetary conditions in the major advanced economies are likely to remain exceptionally loose for several years even after the US Fed ends its asset... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s liquidity measures push policy rate cuts off the table The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) efforts to tighten liquidity have given a bounce to the rupee today. But greater currency stability, even if sustained, will come at the cost of a further economic... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t take the pick-up in money growth too literally Boris Johnson suggests closing Heathrow and building a new airport at either Stansted or the Isle of Grain. (He is distancing himself from his original ‘Boris Island’ idea.) There could be serious... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) There are now some tentative signs that broad money supply is responding to the Bank of Japan’s more aggressive easing. Since April the broadest money measure has increased at the fastest pace in y/y... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Some of our best non-consensus calls (and a few lemons) We are often asked for examples of bold non-consensus calls that have been proved right. This Update provides a selection from the last few months across a range of our services. The publications... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly QE3 tapering in September still a good bet We don’t think the balanced discussion that took place at the FOMC meeting in mid-June means that the Fed is less likely to slow the pace of its monthly asset purchases sooner rather than later. In... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The trivial drop in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to 83.9 in July, from 84.1, was probably in reaction to the recent sharp decline in stock markets. But since equity prices... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Nabiullina’s first meeting suggests policy continuity Russia’s Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at its first meeting under the new governor, Elvira Nabiullina, confirming our view that the change in leadership at the CBR is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bernanke bashing illustrates limits of “forward guidance” Many of the criticisms of the US Fed’s recent communications on monetary policy are, in our view, unfair. However, the difficulty that the media and markets have found in drawing clear conclusions... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean central bank hints at a rate cut ahead The Central Bank of Chile left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.0% last night, but gave the clearest signal yet that a rate cut is on the cards in the coming months. Elsewhere, the prospect... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment threshold would have its problems With Mark Carney having already primed expectations at July’s MPC meeting, we still expect the MPC to embark on full-blown forward guidance at its meeting next month. An unemployment threshold is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pound could play a greater role in policy under Carney Following Mr Carney’s arrival at the Bank of England, the pound this week touched its lowest level against the dollar since 2010. The fact that the new Governor seems to have had no qualms about... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to wait until 2014 before hiking rates Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. We think rates will remain on hold until early 2014, when we have pencilled in a hike. 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan may still have more work to do The increasingly upbeat tone of the Bank of Japan’s comments on the economic recovery has dampened consensus expectations of additional monetary easing (on top of that already planned). However, a... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Germany solve the euro-zone crisis? As the German economy struggles to grow, the Government will continue to resist the permanent transfers that the euro-zone’s periphery needs. But it will probably back further extensions to deficit... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
