China Economics Focus A brief primer on China's interbank market China’s cash crunch has shone a spotlight on its interbank market, which investors without a close interest in China’s banking and financial sector previously paid little attention to. In this month’s... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How far can the Bank of Japan's QE replace the Fed's? Japanese investors are perhaps more likely to follow global trends than to lead them, but the Bank of Japan will help keep global monetary conditions loose even when the Fed starts to taper QE3. 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can Carney save the day? The recent rise in interest rate expectations and gilt yields has boosted the case for Mr Carney to start on a strong note by introducing forward guidance and resuming quantitative easing. Bold action... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending recovery built on fragile foundations Today’s news on the state of households’ finances shows that consumer spending is continuing to rise despite falling real incomes. But that this is only being achieved by a sharp fall in saving... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still mulling more support; exit remains distant With the news that the US Fed is set to taper its QE programme hitting euro-zone financial markets, President Draghi should provide reassurance about ongoing ECB policy support at the forthcoming... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor QE tapering unlikely to trigger an EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The increase in Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a five-and-a-half-year high of 81.4 in June, from 74.3, was quite surprising given that the usual determinants of sentiment didn't... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian and Polish easing cycles nearing an end Policymakers in Hungary and Poland look set to cut interest rates at least once more, probably next month, but we think easing cycles are nearing an end in both countries. 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar's descent likely to continue The Canadian dollar is likely to trend lower against the US dollar this year and next. While further declines in commodity prices are likely to play a minor role, we anticipate narrowing interest rate... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Could a '94 style bond bloodbath derail the recovery? The recent surge in Treasury yields is unlikely to develop into a 1994-style bond collapse, principally because the outlook for monetary policy is completely different. Furthermore, for those worried... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What next for monetary policy? Monetary policy in sub-Saharan Africa has all of a sudden become interesting. Ghana surprised expectations by hiking interest rates last month, while countries in East Africa have continued to cut... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household sector sensitive to higher long-term rates The recent improvement in the global economic outlook and changing prospects for US monetary policy in particular have prompted us to revise our global bond yield forecasts moderately higher... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The Fed’s tapering and rate hike timetable The markets may have overreacted a bit to the details of the Fed’s QE3 tapering timetable and the prospect of the first interest rate hike taking place in two years’ time. Nonetheless, the growing... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What does Abenomics mean for the rest of Asia? Hopes that the policies of Prime Minister Abe’s new government will transform the outlook for Japan’s economy have lifted sentiment in the country. This Weekly takes a look at the implications of... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) With the official core inflation measure unchanged at a worryingly low 1.1% in May, the output gap would appear to be larger than the Bank of Canada is willing to admit. If, as we expect, economic... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q2 2013 Businesses remain relatively confident about the economy overall but, when it comes to their own situation, they have recently turned much more downbeat. Meanwhile, Chinese households are as reluctant... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
