UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr. 13) April’s household borrowing figures are likely to quell some of the optimism arising from the recent run of better economic news. While the Funding for Lending Scheme has continued to drive down... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May 13) May’s strong rise in the level of consumer confidence will raise hopes that the near-term outlook for consumer spending has brightened. But May’s reading was boosted by some temporary factors, and... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Surveying the zero bound with caution After cutting interest rates last month and hinting that more support might be to come, we suspect that the ECB will disappoint markets at its forthcoming policy meeting and press conference... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil ups the ante in fight against inflation Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50bps last night, sending out a strong message that it has not gone soft on inflation. Further hikes are possible in the months... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank stands pat and waits for new Governor The Bank of Canada stood pat, leaving its tightening bias unchanged ahead of the arrival of the new Governor. The challenges that Governor Poloz will face, namely a weak global economy, volatile... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May) The fall in May’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey provides another reason to think that the retail sector has lost momentum in the second quarter. Falling employment and negative pay growth means... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's government will push for more rate cuts The Bank of Thailand cut its policy rate for the first time since October at its meeting today, under heavy pressure from the government. Another rate cut is likely in the coming months. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery now being held back by fiscal tightening The US recovery has, up to now, remained lacklustre, but there are signs that this extended malaise could finally give way to a period of more vigorous growth. We expect GDP growth to accelerate from... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (May) Thanks to the continued rally in equity prices, falling gasoline prices and the housing recovery, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence rose to a five-year high of 76.2 in May, from 69.0... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s scope to ease policy limited by FX debt The weakness of Hungary’s economy, coupled with below-target inflation, means that further interest rate cuts are likely over the next couple of months. However, we think the country’s high level of... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker growth keeps EM central banks in easing mode In aggregate terms, EM monetary policy has been loosened over the past six months. But there has been a big difference between the actions of central banks in each EM region. In Europe and, more... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (May), Consumer Conf. (Jun) & Final GDP (Q1) May’s renewed rise in the German Ifo survey and the increase in the GfK consumer confidence indicator for June added to signs that the economy is recovering. But we expect the recovery to be modest. 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Nascent recovery begins to wither The nascent recovery in consumer spending lost pace in the first quarter and there are signs that it has wilted further since. Admittedly, some of the weakness of the latest evidence reflects... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Tightening bias will soon become unnecessary The outgoing Governor Carney's last scheduled statement next week (May 29th) is unlikely to hint at any shift in policy. Nor do we believe that his replacement Stephen Poloz, due to take over next... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: rates on hold as rand plummets The collapse in the rand over the past week or so means that, despite the continued weakness of South Africa’s economy, there is little room for the Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy. In fact, it... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer support for growth fades Real household spending continued to support overall GDP growth in Q1, seeing its sixth successive quarterly rise. But it was the weakest rate of expansion in 18 months. And given a softer labour... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
