Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak industry and low inflation to trigger Polish rate cut April’s PMIs show signs of a renewed downturn in manufacturing in Central Europe. And tempting as it is to blame the weakness of German industry, it looks like domestic factors are playing a role too... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed appears less inclined to curb QE anytime soon The Fed's assessment of the economic outlook didn't change much in the statement issued today, but the FOMC nevertheless felt it necessary to flag up explicitly that the pace of asset purchases could... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The sharp rebound in April's Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 68.1, from an upwardly revised 61.9 in March, was driven by the decline in gasoline prices and the continued rally in... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) March’s household borrowing figures saw a continuation of the modest expansion of credit seen in recent months. But there remains little sign of any move back to the pace of borrowing seen prior to... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.) April’s slight fall in the level of consumer confidence provides further evidence that the consumer sector won’t see a meaningful recovery this year. With employment falling and real pay contracting... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates on hold for foreseeable future The Colombian government’s stimulus package may boost industry at the margin, but it is unlikely to solve the problem of an overvalued peso and widening economic imbalances. As a result, we doubt that... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Doubts lingering at the BoJ Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting was mainly concerned with tying up loose ends left over after the policy overhaul earlier in April. But it also revealed that some Policy Board members are unconvinced... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates on hold for the foreseeable future We suspect that the Mexican central bank (BANXICO) is set for another prolonged period of inactivity. High inflation will prevent additional rate cuts in the near term, while a rebound in economic... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Apr.) Japan’s adoption of a far more aggressive monetary policy stance early this month has left the ECB looking increasingly out of step with its peers. 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slowdown in consumption growth is here to stay Although consumption growth was respectable in the second half of last year, the further deceleration in income growth, along with the reported weakness of retail spending, suggests that it has slowed... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deleveraging in Denmark: what lessons for other Nordics? Household spending in Denmark has barely recovered since its housing bubble burst in 2007 and there appears little respite ahead for households. With rising debt now fuelling housing booms in Sweden... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Capital inflows a worry in the Philippines Worries over capital inflows are a major concern for the central bank in the Philippines (BSP), which has been stepping up efforts to deter “hot money”. Although the BSP left its key overnight rate on... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Balance marginally in favour of rate cut Having stated following its last meeting that it stood ready to act, it would be a big disappointment if the ECB did nothing at the forthcoming meeting on May 2nd. On balance, we think that an... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Deleveraging in Denmark: what lessons for other Nordics? Household spending in Denmark has barely recovered since its housing bubble burst in 2007 and there appears little respite ahead for households. With rising debt now fuelling housing booms in Sweden... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Weaker data mean the Fed is unlikely to curb QE3 yet The deterioration in the incoming economic data for March will, at least temporarily, prevent the Fed from slowing the pace of its monthly asset purchases. We anticipate that the Fed will stand pat at... 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.) The fall in April’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey provides further reason to think that the pick-up in the consumer sector earlier this year was just temporary. With employment now falling and the... 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
