Asia Economics Update Malaysia to raise rates sooner than expected In its latest move to rein in subsidy spending, the Malaysian government this week announced that it will hike electricity tariffs in 2014. Further subsidy cuts, particularly on the fuel front, are... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: further rate cuts may come in 2014 In spite of October’s rise in inflation, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to cut interest rates today. It looks like the decision was prompted by the weakness of recent hard activity data, as... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Pressure on the ECB to take further action set to grow President Draghi emphasised at December’s interest rate press conference that the ECB has a “powerful artillery of instruments available”. And the pressure on it to use these instruments looks set to... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC's inaction speaks louder than words While the MPC’s communications have arguably become a little less clear over the last month or two, Committee members seem united in the fundamental belief that inflation pressures will remain subdued... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank dashes hopes that hiking cycle may be over The minutes to last month’s COPOM meeting, released this morning, will dash hopes that Brazilian policymakers might call a halt to interest rate hikes at their next meeting in January. 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norwegian interest rates on hold until at least mid-2015 The weakening Norwegian economy prompted the Norges Bank to push back its tightening cycle today. With the Bank revising down its economic forecasts closer to our own, we agree with its new projection... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates on hold until at least mid-2015 The weakening Norwegian economy prompted the Norges Bank to push back its tightening cycle today. With the Bank revising down its economic forecasts closer to our own, we agree with its new projection... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada shuffling closer to a rate cut Although the Bank of Canada maintained its neutral stance as expected, its policy statement showed that it does have more concerns about the growth and inflation outlook, just not enough right now to... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rate hikes unlikely until 2015 Governor Belka reiterated his “forward guidance” at today’s post-MPC meeting press conference, pledging not to raise interest rates until the end of the first half of 2014 at the earliest. For our... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Talk of imminent monetary easing seems premature We continue to expect the Bank of Japan to announce further substantial monetary stimulus eventually, but those now speculating that it might act within the next few months are likely to be... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank still likely to provide more support The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold at 2.5% today. However, we think further loosening will be needed next year to help the economy cope with the cooling mining boom. 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Bank of England starts to take away the punch bowl The Bank of England has started the slow process of withdrawing support to the mortgage market. In our view, the acceleration of the review into the introduction of an industry-wide leverage ratio is... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Rates on hold for a long time yet With November’s Inflation Report indicating favourable prospects for growth and inflation, there is little reason for the MPC to change course on policy. And while unemployment may be falling more... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to stay on hold for most of 2014 Following the Colombian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold on Friday, we think that the Colombian economy will have to deteriorate significantly to trigger additional rate cuts... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Cutting the IOER rate would be too risky Cutting the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate may seem like a simple way for the Fed to signal its intent to leave short rates at near-zero for several more years, at the same time as it begins... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities rebound, bond yields surge China’s stock market rebounded strongly in the second half of November, as the comprehensive reform plan released following the Plenum seems to have eased fears of a sharp slowdown in the economy... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
