The US recovery has, up to now, remained lacklustre, but there are signs that this extended malaise could finally give way to a period of more vigorous growth. We expect GDP growth to accelerate from 2.0% in 2013 to 2.5% in 2014. The two biggest factors holding back the US recovery now are the weakness of global economic growth and the ongoing fiscal contraction. The latest sequestration spending cuts mean that fiscal policy will remain a drag on growth for the remainder of 2013, but should ease next year.
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