China Economics Update Would price controls work? Price controls may appeal to officials eager to be seen to be doing something about rising inflation, but China’s experience with controls has not been encouraging. For markets, they could play either... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More Bank of Korea rate hikes on the way The Bank of Korea (BoK) hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5% today, in a move we had expected but which surprised the Bloomberg consensus. The economy should regain momentum over the next 12 months... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka set to tighten monetary policy in 2011 The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept its policy rates on hold at today’s meeting, as expected. Inflation has accelerated but is unlikely to reach a problem-pace any time soon. However, GDP growth... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Fed's QE2 already high and dry? The fact that Treasury yields have risen rather than fallen since the Fed announced the launch of QE2 is not necessarily evidence that the policy is failing, especially when the US central bank has... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update US QE2 no boon for Canada The Fed's new programme of asset purchases (QE2) does not change our view that Canada faces an extended period of weak economic performance. We continue to expect GDP growth to stagger along at around... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's upswing set to stay strong Industrial output growth slowed sharply in September while the annual gain in wholesale prices eased a little in October. The Reserve Bank (RBI) has already made it clear that policy rates will almost... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed criticism over the top but not all unfounded The Fed's quantitative easing may be unconventional, but it is designed to work through the same channels as conventional changes in short-term interest rates; by lowering long-term interest rates... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea's monetary tightening set to resume The Bank of Korea meets on Tuesday and, we judge, will probably lift its 7-day repo rate by 25bp to 2.5%. GDP growth has inevitably slowed given the tougher global environment but domestic demand is... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Renewed rise in inflation needn't rule out QE2 Some of the reaction to last week’s Bank of England Inflation Report - including the 10bps or so rise in bond yields - seemed a bit over the top to us. After all, the MPC’s growth and longer-term... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Policy tightening in Malaysia has paused, not finished Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left policy interest rates unchanged today at 2.75%, as expected. The slowdown in GDP growth probably has further to go but we still anticipate that the upswing will regain... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will the next big move in interest rates be down? Policymakers in some countries have raised the prospect that interest rates may be cut in response to recent rapid currency appreciation. But while we would not dismiss the possibility altogether –... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia to resume policy tightening next year Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) meets to set policy interest rates on Friday and will likely leave the overnight rate unchanged at 2.75%. The economic upswing is losing some momentum and inflation will... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's Survey shows no evidence of loan rebound The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers reveals a disturbing drop off in the demand for new loans and the renewed tightening of credit conditions for residential mortgages and other consumer... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam makes the right move Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) lifted its policy rate by 100bp, to 9%, late on Friday. The adjustment is a step in the right direction but far more has to be done to ensure that inflation slows to the... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: gearing up to hike interest rates It is now more likely than not that Polish policymakers will start to raise interest rates later this month. But we doubt that this will signal the beginnings of a sustained tightening cycle. 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly QE2 will not lead to runaway inflation It is very easy to understand why some fear that the Fed's second-round of quantitative easing will lead to a surge in inflation. But we suspect that the ultimate impact on core inflation will be... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
