Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru to extend long pause on interest rates The central banks of Chile and Peru left their respective policy rates unchanged last night and offered little to suggest that a near-term rate move is on the cards. In the case of Chile, though, it... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesian rates to stay on hold despite inflation risks Although Bank Indonesia kept interest rates on hold today, there is a growing risk that rising headline inflation will cause the central bank to hike rates before the end of the year. However... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish National Bank takes more dovish stance The Polish MPC appears to have taken a slightly more dovish stance since last month following weaker-than-expected inflation and activity data. Our base case remains that interest rates will be left... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank edging closer to neutral We don't anticipate any major changes from the Bank of Canada at Governor Mark Carney's penultimate policy meeting next Wednesday (April 17th), but the Bank will be forced to admit in the accompanying... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How dependent are low US Treasury yields on QE3? The conventional wisdom appears to be that 10-year Treasury yields are only likely to remain below 2% if the US central bank maintains its current pace of buying. In fact, the launches of successive... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might Japan’s easing mean for the rest of the world? The more ambitious policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan has had a major impact on the yen and the relative performance of Japanese equities. But speculation that Japan’s additional monetary... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze temporarily eases for households Given the controversy about the tax and benefit changes introduced in recent days, the point that these measures are in aggregate putting some cash in households’ pockets has been overlooked. That... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More downside for yen than upside for Nikkei? The much more ambitious policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan should keep the yen on a weakening trend, but the scope for a further boost to Japan’s stock market may be limited. 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The hare and the tortoise As the UK struggles to grow, she can only look on with envy at the budding recovery in the US. The UK will continue to lag behind for the foreseeable future. But further ahead, she should be able to... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rate-cutting cycle over We suspect that the interest rate cutting cycle in Colombia has come to an end. Admittedly, to the extent that there are changes in the next 6-9 months, rates are more likely to fall than rise. But... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB about to unveil another bazooka? Despite ECB President Mario Draghi’s assurance last week that the Bank “stands ready to act”, he gave very little indication of what support it might offer. An imminent interest rate cut is possible... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does Japan offer hope for a stagnating UK? Recent developments in Japan, with a new central bank governor and the unleashing of radical monetary policy measures, may offer hope for the UK as Mark Carney’s arrival moves closer. 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy easing likely to focus on weaker ruble Pressure is mounting on Russian policymakers to act to stimulate the slowing economy. But unlike in 2008-09, there is little room for a large-scale fiscal stimulus. And substantial cuts in interest... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB "ready to act", but running out of options After leaving interest rates on hold today, ECB President Draghi acknowledged the downturn in the economic outlook and stated that the Bank stood ready to act in future. However, he provided little... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's "Funding for Growth" scheme lacks punch The “Funding for Growth” scheme announced by the National Bank of Hungary is not quite as radical as it could have been. This helps to explain the relatively muted reaction in the financial markets... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC sits on its hands again Although the Monetary Policy Committee left policy on hold again today, we suspect that the decision was still a close one. And while the chances of more asset purchases in May have perhaps declined... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
