China Economics Update Rebound remains elusive The key message from China’s May data is that there is no clear evidence of an economic rebound getting underway. Most of the commentary has focused on the impact on exports of more stringent controls... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Time running out for policymakers' hopes of rebalancing It is becoming more clear that sluggish global demand and volatile commodity prices will outlast the willingness and ability of households' to provide debt-fuelled support to economic growth. Without... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Surveys show faith in "Abenomics" remains high The economic data have started the week on a brighter note. Admittedly, the upward revision to Q1 GDP is largely old news and the detail is less positive. However, the May readings on consumer... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB keeps its options open After leaving interest rates on hold, the ECB left the door open to more policy support, suggesting that more LTROs, negative deposit rates, forward policy guidance and stimulation for Asset-Backed... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch What more could (or should) the Bank of Japan do now? The Bank of Japan’s two-day June meeting (which concludes on Tuesday) is unlikely to result in any major policy changes. The Board will probably discuss tweaks to its money market operations and asset... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Mr Carney has work to do despite signs of recovery Mervyn King left his last Monetary Policy Committee meeting with his wish to restart the quantitative easing programme unfulfilled and the Committee still seemingly stuck in a state of limbo ahead of... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: interest rates unlikely to fall much below 10% Today’s decision from the Bank of Uganda to cut interest rates by 100bp to 11% is probably not a one-off. But, with inflation picking up and the shilling likely to come under pressure, we doubt that... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to stay below 3% until 2015 Following today’s cut in Polish interest rates, Governor Belka gave few hints about the likelihood of further easing. We think it’s most likely that interest rates will be left on hold at 2.75% over... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: prospect of rate cuts to keep peso under pressure The Chilean peso recently weakened to over 500/US$ and, with support for rate cuts within the central bank growing, we expect it to fall to around 520/US$ by year-end. Meanwhile, Brazil’s decision to... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Further dip in core inflation won't prevent trimming of QE3 Core inflation is unlikely to fall to a level that will spark concerns about deflation and prevent the Fed from slowing the pace of its monthly asset purchases later this year. This is mainly because... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: May's rise in inflation to postpone rate cuts The sharp increase in Russian inflation in May means that interest rates are likely to be left on hold when Russian central bankers meet next week. However, inflation continues to be driven by food... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the UK turning Japanese? The UK economy is at risk of following a path that is, if anything, worse than the ‘lost decades’ Japan experienced from the early 1990s. While the UK possesses some advantages Japan lacked, in some... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumption tax hikes essential to maintain credibility Although barely on the radar of most investors just yet, the Abe government’s decision on whether to press ahead with the planned fiscal tightening in 2014 and beyond may well be the most important... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC likely to remain in limbo June looks like being another month of no change for the Monetary Policy Committee. Although inflationary pressures have eased recently, the role of temporary factors means the Committee is likely to... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the rise in consumer confidence a turning-point? On the face of it, the rise in the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence in May brought further evidence that the economy has finally turned a corner. But even if confidence is now on the up, it may... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Pressure grows on the ECB to do more Although euro-zone businesses and consumers are becoming less pessimistic and policymakers are softening their stance on austerity, there is still little sign that the region is on the cusp of an... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
