Bank of Japan Watch Forecasts looking too rosy The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board is unlikely to announce any major policy initiatives at the two-day meeting which concludes tomorrow. 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank Negara to stay on hold, but it is a close call Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) meets on Thursday and will probably keep the overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.75%. The economic recovery has inevitably lost some momentum as exports have been hit by... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling threat will help to keep rates low Much of the pound’s recent strength appears to have reflected the rise in inflation in the UK and the growing expectation that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will soon be forced to raise official... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate hikes remain a distant prospect in Mexico As expected, the Central Bank of Mexico (BANXICO) held interest rates at 4.5% this afternoon. Speculation is mounting that rising food prices could trigger a rate hike over the coming months but the... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Picking apart the mixed messages on rates The past month has produced conflicting signals about the future path of monetary policy in the region. While policymakers in Hungary and Poland have begun the year by hiking interest rates, their... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey still focussed on cutting the carry Despite today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut interest rates, increases in bank reserve requirements that are likely to be announced over the next couple of days mean that... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tombini starts with a hike, attention now turns to fiscal policy Last night, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 50bps to 11.25%. Rates will probably be increased by another 50bps at March’s meeting too. But if rumours of a fiscal tightening... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate hike unlikely to trigger sustained tightening cycle With underlying inflation pressures still relatively subdued over the key 12-18 month policy horizon, today’s hike in Polish interest rates is unlikely to be the start of a particularly aggressive... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won't call an early halt to QE2 We don't anticipate that the stronger tone of the incoming economic data will prompt the Fed to curtail its plan to buy $600bn of Treasury securities by June at the next FOMC meeting, which concludes... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still sitting on fence The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning is unequivocally dovish, no doubt a bit of a disappointment to market analysts, who had expected a more hawkish tone. Indeed, despite more... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India set to lift rates again later this month India data released last week showed industrial production growth slowed sharply in late 2010 while the annual gain in wholesale prices picked up. The Reserve Bank (RBI) will respond to the latter by... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB boxes with shadows In adopting a more hawkish tone last week, when core euro-zone inflation is running at just 1.1%, the ECB has increased doubts over its ability to grasp the seriousness of the situation facing the... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How far will interest rates rise in Poland? After remaining on hold for the past 18 months, it seems all but certain that Polish interest rates will be hiked later this month. But we doubt that this will mark the start of an aggressive... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reserve requirements set to become primary policy tool The People’s Bank is shifting towards using reserve requirements as a primary tool to limit credit growth. This is another reason to believe that interest rates will not rise as far as many expect in... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
