Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan sticks to its guns The Bank of Japan’s inaction today was no surprise, nor was Governor Kuroda’s relatively sanguine attitude to the jump in JGB yields. However, the April external trade data were disappointing and the... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Pub. Fin. (Apr.), MPC Minutes (May) Today’s data contained some mixed signals on the strength of the economic recovery, with retail sales slumping but with the public finances making a reasonable start to the year. 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria resists government pressure to cut rates The Central Bank of Nigeria resisted government pressure to cut interest rates this afternoon, but we suspect that a combination of below-trend growth and sub-10% inflation will pave the way for... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Kuroda to seek to reassure JGB investors The Bank of Japan’s two-day meeting (which concludes on Wednesday) is unlikely to result in any major policy changes. Governor Kuroda will want to address the recent jump in JGB yields, although we... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (May) The sharp increase in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to a near-six-year high of 83.7 in May, from 76.4, is due to a fruitful combination of a number of events. It appears... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for rate cuts later in the year The Central Bank of Chile (BCC) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.0% last night, however the accompanying statement was a little more dovish in tone than in recent months. We continue to... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumer spending unlikely to stage strong recovery Over-invoicing by exporters over the last five months has significantly inflated the apparent strength of overseas demand. While official customs data show a surge in exports, this is not evident in... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is monetary policy too loose for Germany? This Update addresses the question of whether monetary policy is now too loose for Germany and, if so, what can be done about it? While there are various policies that could be adopted at the national... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further Turkish rate cut in the pipeline We think the Turkish central bank (CBRT) will follow up today’s 50bp cut in interest rates with a further 25bp cut over the coming months. But policymakers may also continue to offset the impact of... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian interest rate cuts to come soon While central banks across much of the emerging world are cutting interest rates, high inflation prevented the Central Bank of Russia from doing so today, in spite of the weakness of the economy... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumer confidence falters on inflation fears Japan’s equity markets may still be gripped by euphoria, but the recovery in consumer confidence faltered in April. This coincided with a jump in inflation expectations in the wake of the Bank of... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What negative rates would mean for euro-zone neighbours As a result of ultra-loose monetary policy in major economies, central banks in smaller countries such as Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark are struggling to deal with both rising private debt... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency to play bigger role in Mexican interest rate decisions The Mexican economy has hit a soft patch in recent months, but we would caution against being too pessimistic. Growth is likely to accelerate in the second half of the year as inflation pressures... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr. 13) April’s retail sales data provided the strongest sign yet that households have largely shrugged off January’s tax hikes. This is perhaps partly due to the recent plunge in gasoline prices, which has... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Still subdued in April Today’s data releases suggest that domestic demand remains weak despite a strong expansion in credit in recent months. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates to stay on hold for the rest of this year Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru offered little to suggest that policymakers are considering a near-term change in interest rates. Going forward, we expect the monetary policy bias to shift... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
