Asia Economics Update Is Vietnam heading for another crisis in 2011? Yes is the answer to this question, unless policy-makers change course. A shift is needed towards targeting stability and lower inflation, rather than achieving high growth for its own sake. The good... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB ride to the rescue? Recent comments from ECB President Trichet have brought hope that the Bank might step up its bond purchases to support peripheral markets. But to make any real difference, the ECB would probably need... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand makes the right move The Bank of Thailand (BoT), in a surprise move earlier today, lifted its policy rate by 25bp to 2.0%. Domestic demand is well placed to lift GDP growth during the course of 2011, which means that... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's central bank has probably tightened enough The central bank in Pakistan (SBP) today lifted its discount rate by 50bp to 14.0%, as we had expected. The annual gain in consumer prices should peak in coming months and inflation pressures from the... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rate hike reflects political, not economic, concerns The outlook for inflation does not offer a particularly convincing justification for this afternoon’s surprise decision to raise Hungarian interest rates. Instead, we think the move is best viewed as... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency concerns to temper rate hikes Strong capital inflows continue to create something of a headache for policymakers in Latin America. On the one hand, growth should remain strong over the coming quarters, while the inflation outlook... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) There is still little evidence of any pick-up in the growth rate of the broad money supply – supporting Mervyn King’s view that inflation will fall further ahead. Meanwhile, bank lending remains... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Phasing out support despite peripheral crisis The ECB faces the difficult task this month of weighing up the periphery’s disastrous situation on the one hand and pretty strong growth in the core euro-zone economies on the other. With the region’s... 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers in 'wait and see' mode The turmoil in the euro-zone’s periphery probably tipped the balance in favour of keeping Polish interest rates unchanged this afternoon and thus delaying a first hike until next month or (more likely... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian cabinet beginning to take shape It has been rumoured in the Brazilian press that Henrique Meirelles will step down as Governor of the central bank (BCB) next year, but that Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, will retain his post under... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Our Capital Economics' measure of M3 is falling year-on-year, albeit at a slower rate. The M2 aggregate is growing at an unusually slow pace, and credit is contracting. Over the past 12 months, the 3... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines' tightening cycle to begin soon The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4.0% today, as expected. The strong peso is doing some of the heavy-lifting for the BSP, but rates will probably need to move... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slowdown looming for Taiwan The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4.0% today, as expected. The strong peso is doing some of the heavy-lifting for the BSP, but rates will probably need to move... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate hikes to remain gradual in Chile The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.0% last night. The strength of the peso means that rate hikes are likely to remain gradual over the coming months. Accordingly... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK MPC Minutes & Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov.) The minutes of November’s MPC meeting and the latest labour market figures tell us little new about the monetary policy debate. The MPC remains in wait and see mode until clearer signals on the... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC split down the middle The acceleration in headline inflation seen across Emerging Europe in recent months has been driven predominantly by a rise in food prices. This follows droughts in Russia and widespread flooding... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
