Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in the Philippines only a matter of time The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.0% today, as expected. We are sticking with our long-held view that rates need to move up this year to ensure that inflation... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC should hold its nerve There had been little to suggest that the Committee had altered its view since the last meeting, so the no-change decision today was of little surprise. However, the next meeting – coinciding with May... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the MPC acting asymmetrically? The MPC’s reluctance to raise interest rates despite persistently high inflation has led to accusations that it has been inconsistent in its treatment of its inflation target. However, there may be... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How quickly is Russia moving towards a free float? The pace at which Russian monetary policy is shifting from a regime centred on targeting the exchange rate to a regime based on targeting inflation remains unclear, but our calculations of FX... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How hard would a rate rise hit households? Perhaps the biggest risk facing the household sector is the possibility of a near-term interest rate rise. We do not think that a modest rate rise would have a disastrous effect on household incomes... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People's Bank aims to curb speculation by savers Today’s interest rate announcement again showed the People’s Bank applying the biggest rate increases to long-term deposits, in an attempt to encourage savers to keep their money in banks rather than... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka still likely to tighten policy this year The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept its policy rates unchanged at today’s meeting, as expected. The upswing will probably stay strong while inflation is likely to accelerate in coming months. We... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Uncertainty makes February rate rise unlikely The minutes of the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting suggested that the Committee was edging closer towards a near-term rate hike. But the sharp slowdown in the economic recovery at the end... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea set to tighten again We expect Korea’s central bank to hike the base rate by 25bp for the second meeting in a row on Friday, which would take the policy rate to 3.0%. This is also the consensus view. Core inflation, which... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia makes the right move Bank Indonesia today hiked its reference rate by 25bp to 6.75%. This is what we expected would happen, but was a surprise to the consensus. More hikes are on the way, and soon. We continue to... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech policymakers turn hawkish The hawkish comments that accompanied today’s decision to leave Czech interest rates unchanged have pushed the koruna above 24/euro for the first time since October 2008. But while the chances of an... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB keeps its finger off the trigger The lack of a further step-up in the ECB’s anti-inflation rhetoric today supports our view that the Bank is unlikely to tighten policy in the near future. Nonetheless, its generally hawkish stance... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BANREP turns more hawkish, but rate hikes likely to be gradual The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) held interest rates at 3.0% last night, as expected. But the accompanying statement was more hawkish than in previous. There is a risk that interest rates will... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's monetary policy tightening is not over The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.75% today, as was universally expected. Low inflation and the uncertainty created by the floods disaster are likely to keep the RBA on the... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Broad money growth is still exceptionally weak, adding credence to the view of the majority of those on the Monetary Policy Committee that inflation will fall back sharply in time. 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia steps up fight against inflation Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to raise bank reserve requirements is further evidence that inflation worries are starting to trump growth concerns. 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
