Asia Economics Update Further aggressive rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked both its main policy rate and the Fasbi rate by 50bp amid concerns about the currency and the outlook for inflation. Consumer price inflation is likely to rise as high... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Higher rates add to headwinds for Brazil’s economy The decision last night by Brazil’s central bank (BCB) to raise interest rates by 50bps to 8.5% was expected, but the accompanying statement suggested that further hikes are likely over the coming... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates kept on hold, but cut likely before year-end The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its main policy rate on hold at 2.5% today, as expected. Nevertheless, with inflation set to remain weak and economic growth likely to stay lacklustre, we have pencilled... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch New Governor may take bold step forward Despite stronger economic data, there are good reasons to expect a more supportive policy statement next week. Although the new Governor Stephen Poloz has said nothing recently that indicates the Bank... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norwegian rate cut still likely despite FX depreciation We have long argued that the strength of the Norwegian krone would push the Norges Bank into further monetary easing. While the currency’s recent sell-off might ease pressure on the Bank somewhat, we... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Confidence in “Abenomics” still high, but waning The fall in consumer confidence in June suggests that the Abe government’s honeymoon period with the public is coming to an end. Sentiment remains at relatively high levels and could pick up again in... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No more cuts ahead The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 2.50% at its meeting today. We believe the central bank’s easing cycle has come to an end, though subdued economic activity means rate hikes do not... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian rate cut still likely despite FX depreciation We have long argued that the strength of the Norwegian krone would push the Norges Bank into further monetary easing. While the currency’s recent sell-off might ease pressure on the Bank somewhat, we... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: decision to hold rates signals end of easing cycle With inflation likely to accelerate over the next few months and the current account deficit still a cause for concern, we think the Central Bank of Kenya’s decision to keep its benchmark interest... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun. 13) With further expansion in June meaning the BRC’s measure of retail sales has now been positive in five of the first six months of 2013, the consumer recovery seems to be gaining an ever-firmer footing... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer recovery faces bigger risks than higher rates The recent jump in long-term interest rates has raised concerns over the impact of higher borrowing costs on the nascent consumer recovery. While the rise clearly isn’t helpful, the continued squeeze... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The turning tide - life after QE Emerging economies are much better positioned than in the past to withstand policy tightening by the Fed and few are at risk of an immediate crisis. Nonetheless, we are entering a new era for emerging... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Steady as she goes The Bank of Japan’s two-day July meeting (which concludes on Thursday) is unlikely to result in any major policy changes. Indeed, the Board is probably much happier with recent market developments –... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Interest rates to stay low despite recovering economy We are publishing our latest UK Quarterly Review today and the economic mood has brightened considerably since the last Review when a triple-dip was still a real possibility. Although GDP growth over... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still at the back of the pack The ECB joined the great forward policy guidance race last week. But when it comes to the broader provision of monetary policy support, it remains firmly at the back of the pack. 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fading price pressures bolster case for stimulus The list of indicators signalling that the recovery is gaining momentum continued to get longer last week. However, the recent news on the inflation outlook – which has perhaps gone relatively... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
