Emerging economies are much better positioned than in the past to withstand policy tightening by the Fed and few are at risk of an immediate crisis. Nonetheless, we are entering a new era for emerging markets (EMs) which will see old stars fade and new stars start to shine. We expect EM GDP growth to stage a gradual recovery over 2014-15, but this will be led by smaller economies such as Indonesia, Mexico and the Philippines. By contrast, growth in the BRIC economies will remain extremely lacklustre.
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