Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to remain loose as economy strengthens Following the decision to leave interest rates on hold earlier today, Governor Belka acknowledged that the Polish economy appears to be undergoing a strong recovery at this afternoon’s post-meeting... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for global real interest rates? Continued high savings rates in emerging economies and weak investment in advanced economies suggest that real interest rates will remain low for many years. In addition, policy-makers have a strong... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank signals greater chance of a rate cut The Swedish Riksbank pushed back the date at which it expects to start raising interest rates and signalled that the probability of a rate cut in the near term has grown. We continue to think that low... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals greater chance of a rate cut The Swedish Riksbank pushed back the date at which it expects to start raising interest rates and signalled that the probability of a rate cut in the near term has grown. We continue to think that low... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to keep rates unchanged this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold today and is unlikely to change its stance any time soon. Falling inflation and fading external vulnerabilities suggest further rate hikes are no longer... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Expectations of mid-year easing likely to be disappointed The markets may be disappointed in coming months as we think the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce further monetary easing later than many expect. We continue to favour October, rather than July. 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Seasonal volatility in food inflation continues to cause swings in consumer price inflation. However, with broader price pressures subdued and little sign of major policy loosening on the horizon, the... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to follow words with actions before long Although President Draghi adopted a softer tone at last week’s interest rate press conference, the ECB decided to once again keep its powder dry. However, given the weak recovery and subdued inflation... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira at risk if Turkish MPC starts to ease policy The recent appreciation of the Turkish lira has caused the central bank’s (CBRT’s) MPC to adopt a more dovish stance, with Governor Basci suggesting that measures might be taken this month to loosen... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Kurodanomics working? The Bank of Japan has become much more aggressive since Mr. Kuroda took over a year ago. The central bank’s “shock and awe” approach is a welcome departure from the gradualist ways of previous... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Rate hikes still a distant prospect With inflation falling faster and slack in the labour market being used up more slowly than the MPC expected in February’s Inflation Report, the decision to leave Bank Rate on hold at this month’s... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Sales tax hike alone unlikely to prompt further stimulus The Bank of Japan will almost certainly maintain its current policy settings at the conclusion of the first of this month’s two Board meetings on Tuesday (8th), despite the hit to GDP from the... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB edging towards more action Although the ECB left policy on hold again today, President Draghi turned his dovish rhetoric up a further notch. With the economic recovery set to remain too weak to diminish the threat of deflation... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes but hints that tightening cycle now over Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates last night, but changes to the accompanying statement suggest this could be the final increase in this tightening cycle. Nonetheless, with inflation once... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s tightening cycle not over yet The Bank of Ghana kept interest rates on hold at 18.0% today, but rising inflation and a rapidly weakening currency mean that rates are still likely to be hiked again before the end of this year. We... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.) & FPC Record (Mar.) Although March’s CIPS manufacturing report indicated that the sector’s recovery may have lost some steam over the first quarter, this seems unlikely to herald the beginning of a renewed slowdown. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
