Canada Chart Pack Canada's sluggish export 'led' recovery Canada's export growth slowed to around 2.0% annualised in the second quarter, from just over 6.0% in the first quarter, which would seem to refute hopes of an export-led pick-up in economic growth... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will forward guidance provide a major boost to Gilts? The UK MPC’s "forward guidance" had little initial impact on Gilts on Wednesday but we still think it will help them to outperform US Treasuries over time. That being said, we do not expect the 10... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) The strong expansion in July’s BRC measure of retail sales suggests that the consumer recovery continued apace at the start of the third quarter. But falling real earnings and lacklustre job growth... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery entering a slower phase Japan’s economy likely continued to grow at a solid pace in the second quarter of the year, even though the recent wide divergence between various measures of consumer spending raises question marks... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia to keep policy loose as mining boom cools The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate by 25bp to 2.5% at its meeting today. It is likely to keep rates very low over the next two years to support the economy through a mining slowdown... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further cuts to come in Romania The surprise decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to accelerate the pace of policy easing reflects several factors, including a growing conviction that inflation will fall back by the end of... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Fragile recovery finally underway Signs of life in the housing market could aid the recovery in consumer spending. But continued falls in real pay are likely to keep any near-term consumer revival subdued. 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Waiting for the consumption tax hike The Bank of Japan will likely leave policy settings unchanged at its two-day August meeting, which concludes on Thursday. Governor Kuroda has indicated that a condition for further easing is the... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s consumers seeing mixed fortunes For all the hype about the rise of the Asian consumer, the recent performance of consumer spending in Asia has been disappointing. The weakness is largely explained by subdued spending in the region’s... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Further pick-up in GDP growth expected The 1.7% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP was pretty modest, even if it did come in above market expectations. Nevertheless, most other data releases last week indicated that GDP growth is... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi muddies the waters President Draghi failed to convincingly improve the ECB’s transparency last week. He added some detail to last month’s pledge that interest rates would “remain at present or lower levels for an... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Catching up again? While the recovery across the pond may have softened, momentum in the UK economy seems to be building. The extent to which the UK can keep this up will be shaped by what we learn in this Wednesday’s... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tampering with the sales tax hike carries risks China’s economy is set to slow further over coming years but we believe that the slump in growth many are now predicting will be avoided. 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wonga won’t deliver the ‘wonga’ for a consumer recovery An expansion in ‘payday lending’ may be contributing to the recent growth in unsecured credit. But, over time, the cost of servicing a rising stock of high-interest debt will depress consumers’... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia‘s growth likely to stay stuck at around 6% Data released today showed that the pace of economic growth in Indonesia eased slightly in Q2. Higher inflation and tighter monetary policy will weigh on the economy over the next year, and we are... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf aid and struggling economy prompts Egypt to cut rates The surprise decision by the Central Bank of Egypt to cut interest rates today was probably triggered by two factors. The first is the influx of aid from the Gulf, which has eased strains in the... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
