Emerging Europe Economics Update Poles apart As expected, Hungarian policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at 6.00% for the third consecutive meeting today. As in the Czech Republic, we now expect rates to remain on hold into 2012. However... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Why are Brazilian interest rates so high? One of the questions that we are most frequently asked is why are Brazilian interest rates so high? We think that the answer lies in the fact that fiscal policy is too loose and, more generally, that... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Thailand set to hike again The Bank of Thailand (BoT) announces its policy rate decision on Wednesday and we expect the repo rate to be raised by 25bp for the fourth meeting in a row, to 2.75%. Prospects for domestic demand... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation drop gives MPC some breathing space March’s fall in CPI inflation has given the doves on the MPC some welcome relief in the run-up to the Committee’s crucial May meeting. Granted, it is far too early to proclaim that the inflation... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the new financing measure? The People’s Bank today launched a new measure of financing conditions. In this Update we outline what the new measure is and how useful we expect it to be. 14th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of the new CBRT governor? The appointment of Erdem Basci as the new Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey will no doubt lead to concerns about increased government influence over monetary policy. While these concerns are... 14th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates to continue rising The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 50bps to 4.5% last night. With the near-term outlook for growth still very good and inflation likely to top 5% in Q4, further policy tightening... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy tightening on the way in Sri Lanka The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left its two key interest rates unchanged today, as was widely anticipated, but tightened policy by increasing its reserve requirement ratio. Unlike other central... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no rush to hike The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning signalled that it is still in no rush to raise interest rates. In particular, it offered no hint that a summer rate hike is coming, supporting... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE2 may not be a big deal for emerging markets The conclusion of the Fed’s second round of Treasury purchases is unlikely to be the major turning point for emerging market equities and bonds that many anticipate. Global financial conditions and... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to resume rate hikes soon Bank Indonesia (BI) left its reference rate at 6.75% today, as was universally expected. Nonetheless, inflation remains uncomfortably high while the economy is set to grow at an above-trend pace in... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s monetary policy tightening has further to go The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its base rate at 3.0% today, as expected. The strengthening won is doing some of the heavy-lifting in terms of policy tightening, but the central bank will not want to... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB takes the lead, for now Last week’s decision by the ECB to raise interest rates before other major central banks mainly reflected its different attitude and approach to inflation-targeting. But we suspect that there were... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still a long way from raising rates Recent events have left our forecast that the Fed will not raise interest rates either this year or next out on a limb. But we are sticking to our guns. After all, this time last year a fading of the... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore set for more policy tightening Singapore’s GDP growth probably remained strong in Q1, keeping overheating as the main policy concern. With headline inflation remaining well above the central bank’s 3-4% target range, and wages... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging up our forecast for Peruvian rates The fact that the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) raised interest rates by 25bps last night, rather than the 50bps that had seemed possible, suggests that policymakers will continue to tighten... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
