Africa Economics Update Modest interest rate hikes still likely in Nigeria The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.0% today but, with inflation likely to accelerate and the naira likely to come under renewed pressure over the coming months, modest... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound may fall further as CBE reduces support The fall in the Egyptian pound in recent weeks is significant given that the central bank had maintained a tight grip on the currency over the past year. No official explanation has been provided for... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate policy? In the majority of advanced economies, policymakers allow the exchange rate to be determined by the currency markets. We think they are likely to continue doing so for the foreseeable future, for... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr 14.) The rise in the annual growth rate of our measure of the M3* money stock, to a nine month high of 5.8% in April from 5.5% in March, is consistent with the recent rebound in core CPI inflation to... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The “Taper Tantrum” one year on A year on from the start of the so-called “taper tantrum”, in which concerns about the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the Fed sent shock waves through EM financial markets, the vulnerabilities... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch On-target inflation forecasts don't preclude more easing The Bank of Japan will most likely leave policy settings unchanged at the upcoming May meeting, and Board members’ sanguine views on the economy suggest that the chances of additional near-term easing... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC's view on slack still plausible? May’s Bank of England Inflation Report proved to be a blow for those predicting that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would signal its intention to raise interest rates soon. The MPC stood by its... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Interest rates on hold for the rest of 2014 The Chilean central bank (BCC) left interest rates unchanged last night and, despite weak economic growth, our long-held view that rates will end the year at 4% looks increasingly likely. Elevated... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is Japan’s private sector ready to releverage? A key aim of the BoJ’s QQE programme is to lower real interest rates in a bid to encourage firms and households to borrow and spend more and thereby eliminate the spare capacity that underpins... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Inflation Report stems rise in market interest rates Speculation that the Bank of England’s May Inflation Report would show that the Monetary Policy Committee is preparing to raise interest rates proved to be unfounded, prompting a significant fall back... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.14) The latest Senior Loan Officer survey showed that banks expect household loan demand to weaken sharply in the second quarter. Borrowing is highly likely to slow now that the consumption tax hike has... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) May’s fairly dovish Inflation Report might go some way to cool expectations that the Monetary Policy Committee will raise interest rates as soon as the first quarter of next year. 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market may be too quick to price in Russia rate cuts The recent rebound in the ruble has led the market to price in interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) over the coming months. We think this is premature. Leaving aside the fact that... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will be the ECB's next move? While President Draghi made clear last week that the ECB will loosen policy in June, he gave very few hints about just what action the Bank will take. Small cuts in the main refinancing and deposit... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Low inflation and the FPC should keep rates down The main risks to our view that low inflation will keep interest rates on hold for longer than markets expect stem from the MPC’s increased focus on spare capacity under phase two of its forward... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Aggressive easing unlikely Interest rates in Peru were left unchanged at 4% last night and we do not foresee aggressive monetary easing in the next 18 months. While economic growth looks set to slow, we think that a large... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
