Europe Economics Update Less could be more when it comes to forward guidance The ECB’s apparent success in verbally influencing the financial markets might reflect the vagueness of the central bank’s communications. But policy actions will always mean more than words. 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumers leading moderate recovery The euro-zone exited its record-long recession in Q2 and recent business surveys suggest that the economy should expand again in the third quarter. An increase in household spending, the first in... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next move in Kenyan interest rates likely to be up African currencies have come under renewed pressure in August, with the South African rand and the Ghanaian cedi suffering more than most. But while currencies have weakened, local equity markets have... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed poised to begin tapering Monetary conditions in the major advanced economies have remained exceptionally loose even as the Federal Reserve prepares to scale back QE3. 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.) While August saw the BRC’s measure of retail sales growth slow a touch, another month of expansion should boost retailers’ confidence that a solid, if unspectacular, rise in consumer spending is... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) Wage growth slowed in July and is likely to ease further in coming months as bonus season ends. Unless regular earnings pick up markedly, households’ purchasing power will therefore become further... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Further easing coming, but not just yet The Bank of Japan is unlikely to make any major policy changes at its two-day September meeting, which concludes on Thursday. Recent economic and market developments have mostly been positive, and... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Split vote on QE to re-emerge The long-awaited introduction of forward guidance has probably not had quite the impact the MPC was hoping for. We think that some members will vote to resume quantitative easing (QE) this month... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dovish statement to temper expectation of rate hikes in Colombia The dovish tone of the Colombian central bank’s monetary policy announcement supports our view that interest rates will remain lower for longer than most expect. We would not rule out further rate... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Aug.) & FLS data (Q2) August’s CIPS manufacturing survey added to the proliferation of evidence indicating that the sector is recovering rapidly. Meanwhile, the most recent update on the usage of the Funding for Lending... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Global developments unlikely to influence Fed tapering Recent global and domestic developments are more likely to lead the Fed to taper QE3 by a relatively small amount at September’s policy meeting rather than prompt it to hold fire until October or... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Spare capacity diminishing but still large On balance, the available evidence suggests that spare capacity remains ample. While the falling unemployment rate points to a tightening labour market, wage growth is weak. The output gap is still... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Households back on their feet, but not yet ready to run Data released last week point to a brightening near-term outlook for euro-zone households, suggesting that consumption growth will gather pace in Q3. But given that a meaningful recovery in the labour... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What will the MPC do next? Despite his best efforts in last week’s speech in Nottingham, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney failed to bring the markets any closer to the MPC’s way of thinking regarding the interest rate... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gains from interest rate liberalisation being overplayed High hopes are being pinned on interest rate liberalisation to inject some vitality into China’s economy. But the full gains from liberalisation will only be realised if the government is willing to... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Monetary conditions to stay loose despite Fed tapering We expect the Fed to begin to scale back its monetary stimulus in September, but the tapering process will be slow and US interest rates will remain low for an extended period. Moreover, central banks... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
