Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Hungarian interest rates should be down Today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to keep interest rates on hold at 6.00% for the fourth consecutive meeting underlines how inflation fears have slipped down policymakers’ list of... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka's central bank biding its time The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left its interest rates unchanged today, as was widely anticipated. Nonetheless, policy settings were tightened in April and more rate hikes look only a matter of... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam needs to remain in tightening mode Policymakers in Vietnam have been busy so far this year tackling the risk of the economy overheating. Nonetheless, policy settings were left too loose for too long and recent data show that broad... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank has more work to do The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly held its policy rate at 3.0% today. Nonetheless, GDP growth has picked up to an above-trend pace, while core inflation looks set to climb further. We still believe... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further tightening to come in Chile & Peru Last night’s decision to raise Chilean interest rates by 50bps to 5% surprised the markets but was in line with our forecast. By contrast, the decision to raise Peruvian interest rates by 25bps was... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia policy rates to rise soon Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to hold its reference rate steady at 6.75% was anticipated given recent downside surprises in headline inflation. However, core inflation continues to climb... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Polish rate hike does not alter the bigger picture The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) surprise decision to raise interest rates by 25bps to 4.25% today does not change the bigger picture that the pace of tightening currently priced into the forward... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea set to tighten again We expect Korea’s central bank to raise its base rate by 25bp to 3.25% on Friday. This is also the consensus view. GDP growth was strong at the start of the year while core inflation, which excludes... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report could reinforce drop in rate expectations This will be the fourth Inflation Report in a row that the MPC will be in the uncomfortable position of revising down its GDP growth forecast for 2011 but revising up its inflation forecast. But of... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara Malaysia set to tighten further Today’s 25bp policy rate hike by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) surprised the consensus, which expected no change, but was in line with our forecast. We expect further tightening to 3.5% by the end of the... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate hikes to come in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) raised its policy rate by 25bp to 4.5% today, as expected. Core inflation has been trending upwards and is likely to continue doing so, while economic growth looks... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB softens its stance slightly Having kept interest rates unchanged at 1.25% as expected, President Trichet’s comments in the press conference appeared to provide tentative support to the view that the ECB is not about to embark on... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Case for a rate hike weakening Given the dismal state of the recovery, it was hardly a surprise that the Monetary Policy Committee kept interest rates on hold today. Most forecasters have reacted to the recent run of weaker news by... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Monetary indicators continue to show that broad money growth is exceptionally weak, consistent with inflation eventually falling sharply in the medium term. 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's monetary tightening on course to resume this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.75% today, as expected. Nonetheless, core inflation rose in Q1 while above-trend GDP growth looks likely over 2011-12. The upshot is that we... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Sluggish recovery eases pressure to hike March’s fall in inflation and a run of weak news on the economic recovery have left an interest rate rise at this month’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting looking relatively unlikely. With inflation... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
