US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s retail sales data weren’t as good as expected, but they still suggest that underlying consumption growth is accelerating. Although next week’s Fed decision will be a close call, we still... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia rate overhaul won’t alter monetary conditions The Central Bank of Russia today laid out plans to revamp and streamline the instruments through which it provides liquidity to banks. Over time, these should help to increase transparency but they... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate cuts still likely in Chile and Peru The stronger tone of recent data means that the case for monetary easing in both Chile and Peru is less convincing than it was only a few months ago. Nonetheless, policymakers in both countries will... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update When will Denmark normalise monetary policy? Denmark’s year-long experiment with negative deposit rates is likely to come to an end next year. But we think that markets are wrong to expect a second rate hike before the end of 2014. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Denmark normalise monetary policy? Denmark’s year-long experiment with negative deposit rates is likely to come to an end next year. Butwe think that markets are wrong to expect a second rate hike before the end of 2014. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to keep monetary policy tight Bank Indonesia (BI) today unexpectedly hiked interest rates in response to continued weakness in the rupiah. Looking ahead, even if the currency starts to recover soon, monetary policy will still need... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in the Philippines, but hikes likely next year With no sign that strong economic growth is feeding through into higher consumer price inflation, the central bank in the Philippines (BSP), as expected, opted to keep interest rates unchanged today... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the income squeeze nearly over? UK consumers have endured the worst squeeze on their real incomes since the 1920s, but finally the end is in sight. We expect falling inflation, a rebound in productivity and some support from tax... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates set for prolonged hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept interest rates on hold today amid signs that the economy is starting to recover. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain subdued, we think the central bank will keep... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rate hike still looks some way off The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today. A rate hike is likely in 2014, but tightening is unlikely to be aggressive. 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Ahead of the taper The markets are obsessing about whether the Fed will begin to reduce its monthly asset purchases at the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (18th September). All things... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won't ignore wider measures of labour market slack By choosing the unemployment rate as its threshold for forward guidance, the MPC has been criticised for using a fairly narrow measure of slack in the labour market. However, we doubt that this will... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What next for the Egyptian pound? Following the recent strengthening of the Egyptian pound, we have revised our year-end forecast for the currency. But in this Watch, we explain why we still think that, over a longer horizon, the... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence & Economy Watchers’ Survey (Aug.) The ongoing falls in consumer confidence and the Economy Watchers’ Survey (EWS) indicate that confidence in "Abenomics" has faded. While other surveys remain at strong levels, the EWS has a better... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Revised) The upward revision to Q2 GDP growth strengthens the case for the government to press ahead with the consumption tax hike. However, the ongoing large reliance on consumer and government spending... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fannie, Freddie and financial repression The proposed winding down of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-owned mortgage finance companies, is normally framed in terms of protecting taxpayers from having to pick up the tab in the... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
