Emerging Markets Economics Update A reprieve for troubled EMs, but fundamental problems persist The Fed’s decision yesterday not to taper its asset purchases just yet provides some breathing room for the more troubled emerging economies. But their structural problems remain and uncertainty about... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to remain in strongly accommodative mode Despite the improvement in financial market conditions, continued recovery of the Swiss economy and softening of the franc, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) re-emphasised today that it intends to... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hiking cycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a solid rebound New Zealand’s economy slowed in Q2, as drought hit agricultural and manufacturing production. However, there were encouraging signs of improvement in other areas of the economy, which bodes well for... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Credit slowdown set to weigh on Thailand’s growth Thailand’s economic growth since the global financial crisis has been supported by an unsustainable surge in credit. Cooling this credit boom is essential to avoid a future crisis but, as this happens... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hikingcycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic rebound unlikely Governor Stephen Poloz's speech today indicated that that the Bank of Canada is doubling-down on its earlier bet that the economy is poised for a comeback, led by a rebound in exports and then... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed delays taper; then fails to offer a clear explanation why The Fed's decision to maintain its asset purchases at $85bn per month was, given that most commentators expected a modest reduction in the pace today, unsurprisingly bond and equity positive. We... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: twin deficits to keep monetary policy tight A failure to sufficiently rein in large budget and current account deficits means that further monetary tightening is still likely in Ghana, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fed tapering and Latin America: a recap All eyes will be firmly fixed on today’s US FOMC meeting in anticipation of the announcement that the Fed will begin scaling back its programme of asset purchases under QE3. But for the economies of... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fed tapering could test the ECB's resolve We don’t expect the announcement of Fed tapering to have an immediately adverse effect on the euro-zone’s financial markets and economy. But a new phase in which other central banks are starting to... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Sep.) September’s MPC minutes suggest that, despite the arguably disappointing impact of forward guidance, the Committee is happy with its policy stance. A resumption of quantitative easing (QE) before the... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic impact of Fed tapering revisited We expect the Fed to announce a small reduction in its asset purchases at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting. In this Update we revisit the implications for EMs and explain why, despite the market... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers waiting for “taper” reaction Having been promised “surprise” measures to shore up the lira by Governor Basci, today’s Turkish rate setting meeting was a non-event. Policymakers appear to be waiting to see how the financial... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Over the past few months, broad money has grown at the fastest pace in several years in y/y terms. However, the Bank of Japan can only take part of the credit: the initial acceleration happened well... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The decline in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to a five-month low of 76.8 in September, from 82.1, reflects the surge in interest rates and the drop in stock markets, although... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
