UK Economics Update Case for more QE strengthening The MPC’s decision to re-launch its quantitative easing programme today confirms that the Committee finally recognises that the major threat to the UK is renewed recession, not inflation. But previous... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update The disappearing case for rate increases Considering the contraction in second-quarter GDP and evidence of slowing global economic growth and rising financial risks, it is not a surprise to anyone that the Bank of Canada kept its policy... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Polish interest rates likely to be down The Polish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold comes as little surprise given the recent signs of a domestic slowdown and lower demand from abroad. With inflation set to ease... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s growth momentum looks resilient Economic growth rebounded strongly in the second quarter, strengthening our view that Australia’s recovery is intact despite the fall in output in Q1. Worries about the global outlook obviously add... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s action won’t rescue the Swiss economy Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to apply a limit of 1.20 per euro to the franc is a bold move which it has pledged to defend at all costs. But in the end, there may be limits to how many... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Edging towards more QE Last month’s dovish Inflation Report, the about-turn of previous would-be rate hikers and the generally gloomy tone of recent news on the global and UK economies have pushed any remaining prospect of... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank's downside risks are being realised It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, considering the slight contraction in second-quarter GDP and evidence... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Is the ECB about to turn? The ECB is likely to soften its tone markedly at this month’s press conference amid signs of a significant deterioration in economic activity. With inflation risks probably no longer deemed to be on... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian rates? After last night’s surprise 50bps cut in interest rates, further monetary easing in Brazil will depend on how events elsewhere in the global economy play out. We doubt that rates will be cut as... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong Swiss franc starts to hurt Swiss GDP data show that the economy held up relatively well in Q2, but exports have already begun to fall. As the Swiss National Bank struggles to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc, the... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jul./Aug.) The news that euro-zone core inflation remained very low in August while unemployment rose further in July should reduce any remaining inflation fears at the ECB, adding to expectations of possible... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will the next move in Mexican rates be down? Above-target inflation means that it would require a major shock to the global economy for the Mexican central bank to cut interest rates this year. But with growth set to slow by more than most... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Global inflation set to fall The slowdown in global growth and recent falls in commodity prices will feed through to lower headline and core inflation in the coming months. Indeed, headline inflation is already at or near its... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke provides no clues on chances of QE3 In his speech at Jackson Hole, Chairman Ben Bernanke provided no real clues that the Fed is building up to more policy stimulus, such as QE3. In fact, he placed more onus on the politicians to help... 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rates to stay on hold for the foreseeable future There were no surprises from Egypt’s Central Bank today as the benchmark interest rate was left unchanged at a record low of 8.25%. With the economy still weak, and core inflation (the bank’s... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Overseas examples suggest VAT cuts costly and ineffectual Given that the £75bn of asset purchases announced in October has not been completed yet, today’s decision by the MPC to leave policy unchanged was unsurprising. However, the Committee has sent some... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
