Canada Economics Weekly Rising interest rate expectations misplaced Market expectations of higher interest rates over the next 12 months look misplaced. The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with much of Europe in recession and the US economy facing a fiscal... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uptick in incoming data not enough to sway the Fed Since the Fed signalled at the last FOMC meeting three weeks ago that it was poised to act, the incoming economic data have, somewhat ironically, suddenly started to improve. Despite the recent uptick... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why is investment not rebounding? Months after policy was loosened, investment growth has barely responded. State-directed investment is picking up but not by enough to offset the reluctance of real estate developers and the rest of... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug. 12) & Labour market (Jun./Jul. 12) The minutes of August’s MPC meeting supported our view that more policy stimulus is likely before long. Meanwhile, the labour market remains puzzlingly resilient, but we doubt that this can last with... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The acceleration in the monetary base is not feeding through to broader money growth as demand for credit, particularly from businesses, is weakening. 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia set for weak recovery despite policy easing Asia’s strong rebound from the 2008-09 global financial crisis took many by surprise. Despite the policy easing now underway in Asia, the region’s recovery from the current global crisis is unlikely... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: don’t bank on a rapid rebound The rapid turnaround in fortunes for Brazil’s economy has provoked much head-scratching from policymakers and investors alike. We think the key point is that the slowdown in growth owes as much to... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s central bank in a difficult balancing act The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its discount rate by 150bp to 10.5% today. Monetary policy is likely to be loosened further in an effort to revive growth, even at the risk of stoking already-high... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly No gold medal for the economy The Olympic mood was abruptly punctured by Mervyn King as he presented the Bank of England’s Inflation Report last week. Although the lower near-term profile for inflation was good news, this was... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian bank turns hawkish despite slowdown in growth The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q2, though modest, is likely to be a sign of things to come. Accordingly, speculation that the Central Bank may soon hike interest rates seems premature. 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) Egyptian inflation fell to a six-year low in July as price pressures in virtually all the components of the consumer price basket eased. 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can the bond rally last? Emerging European bonds have rallied over the past couple of months. In the case of Hungary and Turkey we are doubtful that it can be sustained, but in the Czech Republic and Poland, it may have... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea not done cutting rates The Bank of Korea (BoK) held its policy rate at 3.0% today. Nonetheless, we believe that global growth will continue to disappoint and that more policy stimulus will be needed soon to support Korea’s... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economic rebound remains elusive China’s stimulus efforts are feeding a pick-up in infrastructure investment but recovery has not so far spread to the rest of the economy. 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The economy is not “picking up moderately” The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged at its August meeting, as was widely expected. However, it continues to state that the economy is “picking up moderately” despite the growing body of... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What more can central banks do? Many commentators argue that central banks in advanced economies have all but run out of ammunition. We disagree. Admittedly, the room for further conventional policy stimulus is fairly limited, but... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
