Polish rates likely to remain on hold for a prolonged period

With Poland’s economy now picking up, attention is turning to when monetary policy might start to be tightened. The financial markets are pricing in a first rate hike in Q1 of next year. However, we think that inflation is unlikely to rise substantially even as the economy accelerates, meaning policymakers can keep monetary conditions relatively loose. For now, we expect the first rate hike to come in 2015.

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