US Economics Update Expectations of QE3 appear premature In his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is unlikely to fulfil the markets’ hopes that he will pave the way for a third round of asset purchases (QE3). And even if he did... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand's tightening cycle to end this year In spite of growing downside risks to global growth, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its repo rate by 25bp to 3.5% today. The BoT’s decision-making is being heavily influenced by the outlook for... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Two (very different) scenarios for the yen Japan’s government appears to have changed course and dropped its attempt to weaken the yen in favour of mitigating the impact of a strong currency. For now we are sticking to our view that the yen... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Odds on Turkish recession start to shorten Turkish policymakers left interest rates unchanged today, but hinted that further policy loosening may be on the way. Yet even if additional stimulus is ultimately justified by a renewed downturn in... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Global uncertainty prompts pause in rate hikes The Central Bank of Colombia’s (BANREP) decision to hold interest rates at 4.5% was prompted by the recent uncertainty in the global economy. Rate hikes may resume once the current market turmoil has... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand's central bank faces a policy dilemma The Bank of Thailand announces its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. Policymaking has been complicated by global worries intensifying at a time when local fiscal policy looks set to be... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s central bank to keep rates on hold until 2012 The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept interest rates on hold today, as expected. Although headline inflation crept up slightly in July, the central bank remains confident that inflation will start... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone crisis another headache for Iceland The Icelandic central bank’s surprise interest rate hike today was in stark contrast to the increasingly dovish tone of other central banks around the world. The move reflected a sharp increase in... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The sharp acceleration in money growth in July is not a result of the Fed's loose monetary policies but instead has been driven by investors moving out of equities and/or Treasuries and into cash... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug.) & Labour market (Jun./Jul.) August’s MPC minutes and the latest labour market data strongly supported the markets’ (and our own) assumption that interest rates will remain on hold for at least the next couple of years. 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates on hold until 2013 The recent turmoil in the financial markets has re-shaped the debate on how far interest rates may need to rise in Latin America. We still expect one or two more hikes in Peru, Colombia and perhaps... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does Germany still want to save the euro? Germany’s reluctance or political inability to implement stronger measures to support the euro-zone’s periphery suggests that its appetite for the project might be fading. While euro-zone membership... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Singapore's negative interest rates? Singapore’s short-term swap offer rates (SOR) turned negative last week, prompting questions as to whether this amounts to an implicit policy easing. We think not. The negative short-term SOR is... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Policymakers may be increasingly impotent The recent slump in equity prices is not necessarily a forerunner of a collapse in economic activity. However, the impact of previous episodes of asset price weakness has typically been mitigated by a... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates? Markets have made a dramatic reassessment of the prospects for monetary, judging by the sharp decline in Overnight Index Swaps rates and Canada Government bond yields. In fact, these rates now suggest... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
