BoE Watch UK MPC Watch - QE2 on the slipway With the news on the UK and global economies continuing to deteriorate, it is now a question of when, rather than if, the Monetary Policy Committee will restart its quantitative easing (QE) programme... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay: rates have peaked, cuts to follow in 2012 The Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.0% last night as the board weighed downside risks to growth against stubbornly high inflation. We believe that the BCU... 1st October 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Policy on hold ahead of forecast updates in late October We do not expect any changes in monetary policy from the Bank of Japan next week or for the rest of this year. The Policy Board could again be forced into action by the fallout from global financial... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Laying the groundwork for policy loosening At the press conference following his final meeting as ECB President, Jean-Claude Trichet will strike a more downbeat tone, suggesting that interest rate cuts are not far off. We are still pencilling... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate cuts back on the agenda for 2012 The rapid deterioration in the growth outlook for the developed world, and the deepening crisis in Europe in particular, should in time vindicate last month’s surprise (and controversial) decision by... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Focus shifts to boosting growth & safeguarding stability The latest turmoil in markets and the rapidly deteriorating outlook for global and regional growth mean that fears about rising inflation, which dominated the policy debate over the first half of this... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Sep.) & Public finances (Aug.) The minutes of September’s MPC meeting strongly suggested that QE2 will be launched soon, while August’s public finances threw more doubt on the fiscal plans. 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The most recent acceleration in the annual growth rates of M1 and M2 has been dramatic, but the latest moves largely reflect a rise in the precautionary demand for money. The pick-up in the growth... 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India near the end of policy tightening The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its repo rate by 25bp to 8.25% today, as anticipated, citing further increases in core inflation. Provided the euro-zone crisis does not escalate dramatically in... 17th September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How stressed out is the euro-zone banking sector? Thursday’s pledge by the European Central Bank (alongside similar commitments from the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank) that it will offer 3m US dollar funding over year-end... 17th September 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rates to remain on prolonged hold The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its key interest rate at 2.5% today, as anticipated, citing the deterioration in external conditions and escalation in financial market risks. The RBNZ... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Operation Twist offers best hope among limited options Given the weakness of the incoming economic data, the Fed is now almost certain to do something at next week's FOMC meeting, but exactly what is still not entirely clear. The proposal to lengthen the... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia prepares for global downturn Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to lower its overnight repo rate and at the same time raise its overnight deposit rate is an attempt to wrest back control over market interest... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: in no rush to follow Brazil’s lead on rates Peru’s central bank (BCRP) kept its benchmark lending rate at 4.25% last night. While it appears to have dropped its tightening bias, we believe that it is premature to forecast any policy easing over... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Tide starting to turn on interest rates Central banks in Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea and the Philippines all kept their main policy rates on hold today, as expected, reflecting heightened concern over the outlook for the global economy. This... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB paving the way for rate cuts After leaving interest rates on hold at 1.5% today, the ECB struck a downbeat tone regarding the economic outlook and acknowledged that risks to price stability are no longer on the upside, supporting... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
