Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s Trump challenge

Mexico is one of the most vulnerable economies to the policies that US President-elect Trump flagged on the campaign trail. This Update looks at the channels through which it could be affected. One...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Budget means Bank of England won’t cut rates as fast and as far

While cutting interest rates from 5.00% to 4.75% today, the Bank of England implied that the Budget means rates will continue to fall only gradually. We agree and due to the Budget (and not the US...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and we still think that the conditions will be in place for the policy rate to be lowered to its estimated neutral level of 3...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Bumper cut today, but smaller cuts to follow

Today’s 50bp cut is likely to be the only one in the cycle for the Riksbank, and we expect it to cut by just 25bp at its next two meetings to take the policy rate to its “terminal” level of 2.25% in...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (7th Nov. 2024)

While cutting interest rates from 5.00% to 4.75% today, the Bank of England implied that the Budget means rates will continue to fall only gradually. We agree and due to the Budget (and not the US...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to start cutting in early 2025

Alongside its decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, Norges Bank reiterated that it expects to remain on hold in December too. It is likely to start cutting in Q1 next year and we suspect...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024)

The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.8% y/y in October, was driven entirely by a jump in agricultural price inflation. Core inflation edged down last month which...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Riksbank Policy Announcement (November 2024)

The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 50bp today to 2.75%, but the accompanying policy statement suggested that it plans only two more 25bps rate cuts to take it to a “terminal” rate of 2.25%. Given...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2024)

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we think that interest rate cuts are unlikely to resume until the middle of...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting (November 2024)

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026...

5th November 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey set for a slow disinflation process

Inflation figures out of Turkey – including those published for October yesterday – have surprised on the upside and forward-looking indicators suggest that the disinflation process will be slow in...

5th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Korea: more easing likely as inflation falls again

With inflation falling back further in October, growth struggling and the property market in the doldrums, the conditions are in place for the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates again soon. We think...

5th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will start cutting rates early next year

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a broadly neutral stance at its meeting today, we still think it will start to lower interest rates as soon as February next year. However, with the...

5th November 2024 · 3 mins read