Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q3 2025) The surprise 0.1% q/q contraction in Chile’s economy was mainly due to weaker private consumption and exports and supports our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by 25bp in December... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (Nov. 2025) The minutes of the RBA’s November meeting reinforce the notion that the Bank will remain in wait and watch mode in the near term. While we still expect it to cut rates by another 50bp late next year... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s easing cycle likely to be deeper than most expect Brazil’s monetary policy stance is extremely tight – the policy rate is at its highest level since the mid-2000s. With GDP growth likely to disappoint and inflation softening, there should be ample... 17th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What’s behind the weakness in Polish inflation? The surprising softness in Polish inflation this year can be explained partly by lower energy inflation, but also by steep declines in the prices of some durable goods. The latter probably won’t last... 17th November 2025 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 0.6% y/y, confirms that the war and high interest rates are continuing to take their toll on activity, and the latest US sanctions on the energy sector... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank committed to current policy rate for now The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s October meeting contained some mixed messages, but ultimately confirmed that the Bank remains committed to the current policy rate of 2.25% for the... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orban enters election mode Pre-election fiscal loosening is in full swing in Hungary and, with four months still to go until voting, the risk is that more giveaways are announced, which pushes risk premia on public debt even... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Concerns about bank margins don’t preclude easing As the tailwind from fiscal loosening diminishes, the case for more monetary support will increase. And while the PBOC’s latest policy report flags narrowing bank margins as a concern, this may... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too soon to call time on the RBA’s easing cycle With economic sentiment improving, employment rebounding, and policymakers sounding increasingly hawkish, markets see only slim chances of further RBA rate cuts. However, we suspect the latest data... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of this year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3% early next year. Core inflation is likely to remain above... 13th November 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q3 2025) The strong 0.8% q/q growth recorded in Poland in Q3 confirms that it remains one of the fastest growing economies in the EU and suggests that the risks to our near-term GDP forecasts lie to the upside... 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why the CNB’s next move will be a hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) has left interest rates on hold over the past six months and, while the consensus view remains that there’ll be one more cut, we think the improving growth outlook means... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, came as no surprise, and a return to monetary easing is still some way off. Our current forecast is... 12th November 2025 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Oct. 25) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell to a near 26-year low in October and with inflation set to remain well below the 4% target over the coming quarters, we continue to expect the RBI to... 12th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2025) The slightly larger-than-expected fall in inflation in Brazil, to 4.7% y/y in October won’t prompt Copom to kick off its easing cycle at its next meeting in December. But with the economy weakening... 11th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: The AI boom, rate calls and market momentum 27th November 2025, 8:00AM GMT Asia’s factories sit at the heart of the global AI build-out – but who are the real economic winners, and what happens if the bubble bursts?
