Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) delivered no surprises in leaving its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and we continue to think that the easing cycle will remain on pause this year. While we had... 21st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: What next for the RBA? How Q3 CPI could influence the rate outlook 29th October 2025, 1:30AM GMT Mixed signals from recent data have complicated the RBA’s job.
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Latest decisions and policy outlook 30th October 2025, 3:00PM GMT Our senior economists hosted this 20-minute session to review the latest Fed and ECB decisions and preview the Bank of England’s November meeting.
Event UK Drop-In: Peak inflation? September CPI and the outlook for policy 22nd October 2025, 9:30AM BST Our UK team hosted a 20-minute online briefing to unpack the latest CPI data, discuss the implications for inflation and policy and explain how they shape our non-consensus Bank Rate
Europe Economics Update SNB heading for negative rates (but no others following) We think it is just a matter of time before the SNB returns to negative policy rates as inflation is close to zero and geopolitical risks may put upward pressure on the franc. But negative rates will... 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2025) Although headline inflation rose to the top of the RBNZ's 1-3% target band last quarter, the Bank will put more emphasis on the fact that core inflation remained well-behaved. Accordingly, we still... 19th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on autopilot through shutdown fog Comments from Chair Powell and various other FOMC participants confirm the federal funds rate will be lowered again later this month in spite of the recent rebound in surveyed hiring intentions. We... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Small businesses sounding the alarm The slump in the CFIB Business Barometer this month leaves it consistent with a renewed decline in GDP. With firms’ inflation expectations under control, that adds weight to our view that the Bank of... 17th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gaza ceasefire holding, Russia-India energy relations The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas remained intact this week, but the road to a lasting peace looks fragile. Meanwhile, we still think that an interest rate cut by the Bank of Israel next month... 17th October 2025 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Odinga’s passing, oil prices drop, Nigeria inflation The passing this week of Raila Odinga, a prominent politician in Kenya, is likely to result in his party being less committed to the governing alliance with President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance... 17th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut in November as labour market cools RBA officials have recently been downplaying the potential for further rate cuts. However, we believe their hawkish pivot won't last. Indeed, the surge in the jobless rate to a four-year high in... 17th October 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Conditions for carry trade set to turn less favourable. We think after a period of sustained outperformance, total returns in high-yielding EM currencies relative to funding currencies will be weaker in the next couple of years. In particular, we forecast... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) While the economy appears to be narrowly avoiding recession, we expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of the year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3%... 16th October 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening... 16th October 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Lower BoJ profits not a major drag on public finances If we’re right that the Bank of Japan will lift its policy rate to 1.5% by 2027, its net interest income will turn negative over the next couple of years. However, its overall net income should remain... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep' 25) The sharp drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to 18.0% y/y last month is likely to prompt the Central Bank of Nigeria to continue cutting interest rates, and by more than most expect, over the... 15th October 2025 · 1 min read
