Bank of Japan Watch

Bank will hike once more in December

The Bank of Japan continues to signal that a rate hike at the upcoming meeting on 31 st October is unlikely. With economic activity and inflation evolving as the Bank had anticipated, we still expect...

24th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2024)

The low activity and price components of the flash PMIs for the euro-zone in October will strengthen the conviction of policymakers who think the ECB should step up the pace of rate cuts. We now think...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Will the Bank follow its 50bp cut with another?

The weak economic backdrop means we still see a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp cut at the next meeting...

23rd October 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Yen may rebound and weigh on Japanese equities

We expect the Japanese yen to bounce back before long, putting more pressure on the Japanese stock market, at least in local currency terms.

23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2024)

The weak economic backdrop means there is a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp move at the next meeting in...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep. '24)

The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y, in September, means that the SARB will almost certainly continue its easing cycle. The chances of a 50bp cut at its the next meeting...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Deflation risk to hang over the SNB

We expect Swiss inflation to average less than 0.5% next year and there are several key downside risks that could push inflation over the edge, namely lower oil prices than we expect, a stronger franc...

22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The Hungarian central bank acknowledged the possibility that interest rates could be left on hold for an “extended period” after it paused its easing cycle today. We maintain our forecast that the...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts

1730253600

Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Sep.)

The much weaker-than-expected Polish retail sales data for September suggest that the economy slowed more than we had been expecting in Q3. Even so, we think that this weakness was probably caused by...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Getting a clear read on labour market conditions

The September release of US non-farm payrolls was just the start of a run of strong employment releases in advanced economies this month, reigniting fears about pay growth and inflation. However, when...

21st October 2024 · 13 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

CEE: rapid wage growth to keep fuelling inflation

The persistent strength of wage growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) reflects continued tightness in labour markets and lingering effects from the 2022-23 inflation shock. While the latter...

21st October 2024 · 15 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Is Brazil’s economy overheating?

Concerns that Brazil’s economy is overheating are justified – to an extent. But the economy looks very different now compared with the last bout of overheating in the early 2010s. As a result, while...

21st October 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Asia to drive next phase of the EM easing cycle

The outcomes of the EM central bank meetings since the beginning of October underscore the point that Asia will lead the next phase of the EM easing cycle. Central banks in Central and Eastern Europe...

21st October 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Loan Prime Rate (Oct. 2024)

Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) continue the PBOC’s efforts to support the economy. We expect additional easing to follow in the coming quarters, but this...

21st October 2024 · 2 mins read