Asia Economics Focus Prabowo’s first year: abandoning the policy guardrails? Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto will mark a year in office on Monday (20th October). After an encouraging start, a series of protests in recent months have pushed his administration in the... 15th October 2025 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation outlook (generally) more benign EM inflation has continued to fall and is now close to the rates recorded in the late 2010s, which will be welcomed by policymakers. But there are a few important outliers. Inflation looks set to... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus India’s inflation target is still fit for purpose India is closing in on a decade of inflation targeting and the current framework is up for review. The success of the Reserve Bank in keeping inflation lower and less volatile since the introduction... 14th October 2025 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore’s growth set to ease but MAS to stay on hold Singapore’s central bank kept policy settings unchanged today and its accompanying statement was a touch hawkish. With the economy set to slow rather than slump, inflation likely to rise gradually... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (Sep. 2025) Although the RBA sounded less confident about the policy space it has to lower rates, we still expect it to deliver two more 25bp cuts in the months ahead. 14th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Japan’s leadership turmoil – economic and market implications 15th October 2025, 9:00AM BST Japan’s search for a new prime minister has upended its political landscape – and the outcome will shape the country’s economic and market outlook.
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell sharply in September and with the outlook generally benign and the economy set to cool, we think the central bank will resume its easing cycle in the... 13th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ceasefire in Gaza, NBP’s dovish surprise The ceasefire in Gaza which came into force today will, if it proves lasting, support the ongoing recovery in Israel’s economy and makes an interest rate cut by the central bank at its next meeting... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ’s easing cycle will be over by year-end We were among the minority of analysts who correctly predicted that the RBNZ would slash its policy rate by 50bp this week and we still expect another 25bbp cut at its November meeting. However... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty adds to case for BoJ inaction Sanae Takaichi won Saturday’s LDP leadership elections but is struggling to gather enough support in parliament to become PM as long-standing partner Komeito has threatened to abandon the coalition... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Sep. 2025) The small increases in inflation in Brazil and Mexico in September are unlikely to have a material impact on the next interest rate meetings in both countries. In Brazil, while an easing cycle is... 9th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much will ETS2 add to euro-zone inflation? The introduction of the EU’s Emissions Trading System 2 will add only a small amount to headline inflation in the euro-zone in 2027, perhaps just 0.1 percentage points. So ETS2 is unlikely to be... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Has the threat from QT passed? Quantitative tightening has not been the main driver of higher bond yields in recent years, but it has contributed. With the process now at or near an end in the US and Canada, the threat that further... 9th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement (October) 9th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Sep 16-17) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-September FOMC meeting confirm that “most participants observed that it was appropriate to move the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more neutral setting”... 8th October 2025 · 3 mins read
