Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: A brief sigh of relief in Romania, CEE wage growth Nicusor Dan's victory in Romania’s presidential election on Sunday triggered a relief rally in the country’s financial markets, but we think it is difficult to take an optimistic view on the outlook... 23rd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Disagreement at the ECB but more cuts to come Data released this week – and Donald Trump’s latest threat of imposing a 50% tariff on imports from the EU – reinforce our view that the ECB will cut interest rates in June and loosen policy further... 23rd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA budget, SARB to cut, Transnet, Ramaphosa-Trump South Africa’s finance minister appears to have succeeded – at the third time of asking – at delivering a 2025 Budget that will make it through parliament. But it seems almost certain that tensions... 23rd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: MAS and CBSL to loosen monetary policy further Data published earlier this week confirmed that Singapore’s economy contracted in the first quarter of the year. And with inflationary pressures very low, we expect the central bank to loosen policy... 23rd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t go overboard with cuts, NZ Budget falls flat In light of the RBA's dovish messaging at its meeting this week, we have revised down our terminal rate forecast from 3.60% to 3.35%. However, we doubt that the Bank will cut rates all the way to 3.10... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (May) The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut its overnight deposit rate by a smaller-than-expected 100bp today, to 24.00%. But as inflation continues to ease over the coming months, we still think there’s... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show price pressures easing outside the US The latest flash PMIs point to weak activity and a softening of price pressures in advanced economies outside the US. But the surveys suggest that tariffs are already having an inflationary impact in... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Global Inflation Watch: Disinflation to continue outside the US Inflation has fallen further towards central banks’ targets and we expect it to remain subdued across most of the world. Tariffs will cause a temporary uplift in the US. But elsewhere, their economic... 22nd May 2025 · 19 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Iran, Egypt’s MPR, Morocco secures UAE investment Rumours that Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities suggest that conflict in the region could escalate. But there are reasons to think that the fallout for the oil market, and therefore the... 22nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have lost momentum over the course of 2025 and... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May 2025) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in the first half of May, to 4.2% y/y, was driven in large part by non-core components and is unlikely to sway Banxico’s thinking... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cuts won’t result in faster house price growth With housing affordability still extremely stretched, we expect house price growth to remain muted even as mortgage rates are set to fall further. However, there’s more scope for dwellings prices to... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2025) The near-term outlook for Canada is a little bleak. After a solid first quarter, we expect GDP growth to be muted as the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come weighs on exports, consumer... 21st May 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Should core inflation be a worry for the RBI? Core inflation in India rose to an 18-month high in April, but there are reasons to think that this overstates the extent to which the economy is running into capacity constraints. And with headline... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) The rise in South Africa’s headline inflation to 2.8% y/y still left it below the lower bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range and, ordinarily, would make us more confident that the easing... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
