Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Current accounts, BRICS preview, Sinwar death The current account data released across the region over the past week show that external positions have continued to improve in some countries (notably Turkey), while in others they are deteriorating... 18th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Week of soft data sets up 50bp cut A string of soft data releases this week should give the Bank of Canada the necessary confidence to step up the pace of monetary easing with a 50bp cut at its meeting next week. 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Does a £40bn “funding gap” mean £40bn of tax rises? The Chancellor’s £40bn “funding gap” doesn’t mean that the Budget on 30th October will involve £40bn of tax rises. Some of this “funding gap” will probably be paid for with higher borrowing and some... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s spending review, Argentina’s surplus, Chile rates A proposed “spending review” in Brazil would, if approved by President Lula, ease fears about the state of the public finances and reduce the chances of aggressive rate hikes by the BCB. Elsewhere... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s property doldrums, Indonesia’s new president Concerns that interest rate cuts could lead to a renewed property price bubble in Korea look overblown. With housing transactions close to multi-year lows and the stock of unsold homes high by... 18th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak euro-zone activity data, ECB responds As widely expected, the ECB cut its policy rates by 25bp yesterday, but its policy statement was a bit more dovish than anticipated and a 50bp cut in the future is a growing possibility. Meanwhile... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market to keep RBA on the sidelines Following yesterday's blockbuster jobs report, financial markets have come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't loosen policy before the first half of next year. That's a stark... 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Recessions fears continue to go unfounded, with the labour market still in good health after the strong September employment report. Prospects for October look weaker due to recent temporary... 17th October 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB history shows 50bp rate cut is possible Before the global financial crisis, 50bp interest rate cuts by the ECB were more common than 25bp reductions. Circumstances today are different, but if ECB policymakers are convinced that they need to... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update 25bp rate cuts by ECB most likely, but 50bp possible Christine Lagarde’s message in today’s ECB press conference was distinctly dovish and supports our view that the ECB will cut interest rates by 25bp at each of the next few meetings, at the very least... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2024) Alongside its decision to cut interest rates by 25bp, the ECB stuck to its guidance about data dependence and making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. But the press release also acknowledged... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was accompanied by communications which support our view that monetary easing is still some way off... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to accelerate loosening with 50bp cut The Bank of Canada has said that it would be willing to cut interest rates “more quickly” if the data surprised to the downside of its forecasts, which is exactly what has happened since the Bank’s... 16th October 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2024 Preview In her first Budget on Wednesday 30th October the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, faces the unenviable task of trying to achieve three objectives. First, being able to say there will be “no return to... 16th October 2024 · 26 mins read
