Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ will hand down another dovish 25bp cut The RBNZ is all but certain to cut its cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, at its meeting ending on 28th May. With the recovery showing signs of faltering, the labour market remaining weak, and underlying... 21st May 2025 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2025) We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs will become permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. A recession should be avoided... 20th May 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Interest Rate Announcement (May) The Central Bank of Nigeria left its policy rate on hold at 27.50% today and, with the disinflation progressing slowly and concerns that low oil prices will put downward pressure on the naira, it... 20th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.35% by year-end When the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25bp at its meeting today, it signalled greater confidence that it had brought inflation under control, while sounding increasingly concerned that... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (May 2025) With the Bank growing increasingly concerned about downside risks to the economy, there is a good chance that it will cut rates further than we are currently anticipating this cycle. 20th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Loan Prime Rate (May 2025) Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) probably won’t be the last this year. But rate cuts are likely to remain modest as the PBOC appears to think they could... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom: to hike or not to hike? China’s charm offensive The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week have added fuel to the debate about whether the tightening cycle is now over. But perhaps the bigger point is that, when... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) highlighted concerns with the uncertain political backdrop and recent pressure on the currency when leaving its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%. We now think... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Third time lucky for South Africa’s 2025 Budget? South Africa’s finance minister takes his third stab at delivering the 2025 Budget on Wednesday. Disputes within the ruling GNU seem to have been resolved but this may come at the cost of slippage on... 16th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t claim victory in inflation fight just yet Although the RBA is almost certain to slash its policy rate by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday, it will probably remain cautious about commiting to further policy easing. After all, business surveys... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ will delay further tightening until October The truce reached between China and the US over the weekend is a clear positive for Japan’s economy. Even so, we suspect that weak economic activity coupled with an impending plunge in inflation will... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (May '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The decision by OPEC+ to follow up May’s faster rise in oil production with a... 15th May 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US yield curve could flatten further, despite Fed cuts We think the recent “bear flattening” of the US Treasury yield curve has a bit further to run. 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone debt dynamics: no longer core vs periphery Most euro-zone governments look set to continue running large budget deficits in the coming years. This will support aggregate demand and is a key reason why ECB interest rates will stay higher than... 14th May 2025 · 23 mins read
