Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s bond sell-off: lessons from 2015 The rise in Brazilian local currency government bond yields this year is now on a scale similar to that seen during its fiscal crisis in 2015. Back then, bond yields only started to fall back when... 4th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Where will interest rates trough and why? We expect interest rates to be cut to around the equilibrium of 3% or so in the US, UK and Australia. But rates in the euro-zone and Canada seem likely to fall below their equilibria next year... 4th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in October, to 48.6% y/y, is likely to dash any remaining hopes that a monetary easing cycle will start this year. The risks now seem skewed towards... 4th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft data strengthens case for another 50bp cut While there were some positives to take from this week’s GDP data release, it still points to an economy stuck in a period of below potential growth. This reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued... 1st November 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary back in recession, War in Ukraine The Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe this week continued a bleak run of activity data for the region, with Hungary’s economy significantly underperforming expectations. The risks to our GDP growth... 1st November 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya IMF loan, South Africa’s MTBPS, US election South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) unveiled this week was positioned as a pro-growth budget, but the reality is that the government is sticking to a tight fiscal stance... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong GDP & inflation not enough to prevent 50bp cut The stronger-than-expected euro-zone GDP and inflation data released this week, as well as some comments by ECB policymakers, poured some cold water on expectations that the ECB might accelerate the... 1st November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone investment growth to remain weak Euro-zone investment has been weak since the pandemic. And despite the recent downward revision to our ECB interest rate forecasts, we don’t think it will pick up substantially, given the sluggish... 1st November 2024 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct .24) The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But the extent of the recovery hinges on the scale of fiscal stimulus, which remains uncertain. Our base case is... 1st November 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates in Q1 as capacity pressures ease Financial markets continued to scale back their expectations for rate cuts by the RBA following the release of Q3 CPI data this week. As a result, t hey are now fully pricing in a rate cut only in May... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Political vacuum won’t deter year-end rate hike It now looks likely that the existing LDP/Komeito coalition will remain in power via a partial alliance with the Democratic Party for the People. While there's a risk that the DPP demands policy... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch 25bp will be the new normal With the economy on strong ground, we expect the Fed to shift to a more gradual pace of easing, cutting interest rates by 25bp at each meeting until rates reach 3.00-3.25%. The outcome of next week’s... 31st October 2024 · 8 mins read
