US Fed Watch

Fed Watch: Fed to stand firm amid the noise

We expect the underlying strength in the economy and uncertainty over the policy outlook to keep the Fed in “wait-and-see” mode next week. The updated Summary of Economic Projections are likely to...

11th June 2025 · 8 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (June 2025)

The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1%...

11th June 2025 · 0 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Riksbank likely to wait for uncertainty to clear

On balance, we think the Riksbank is likely to wait until its August meeting before cutting interest rates again in order to get greater clarity on the outlook for the economy. After a 25bp cut in...

11th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025)

Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence...

10th June 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (May 2025)

The slightly larger-than-expected fall in Brazil’s headline inflation, to 5.3% y/y, was driven by weaker food inflation. Underlying price pressures continued to strengthen and, against that backdrop...

10th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

BOJ Watch: Bank of Japan will resume tightening in October

We suspect that the Bank of Japan will stick to its downbeat outlook for economic activity at its upcoming meeting. However, we doubt that trade tensions will weigh on inflation as much as...

10th June 2025 · 9 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2025)

With payrolls plunging, the unemployment rate climbing and wage growth easing, today’s labour market release leaves us more confident in our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from...

10th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (May 2025)

Mexico’s headline inflation rate jumped to 4.4% y/y in May but this was mainly driven by stronger non-core prices and so is unlikely to trouble officials at the central bank. Indeed, with the economy...

9th June 2025 · 2 mins read

India Economic Outlook

India Outlook: Economic outperformance in the face of tariff threat

India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, making it a global outperformer. The recent sharp drop in inflation has enabled the Reserve...

9th June 2025 · 17 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: Floods in Nigeria, SA Budget and inflation target

Flooding in Nigeria in recent weeks has claimed scores of lives and, while the economic hit should be limited, it could result in interest rates being kept higher for longer. More fundamentally, the...

6th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal drama, no TACO for Mexico this week

We doubt that the Colombian government will manage to assuage investors’ concerns about the country's public finances when it publishes its fiscal plans next Friday. Elsewhere, the political wrangling...

6th June 2025 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Equity outperformance to fade, RBI’s bumper rate cut

Despite the bright near-term economic outlook for India, we suspect Indian equities’ recent strong run will prove short-lived. Meanwhile, we think that the RBI's easing cycle is now over following its...

6th June 2025 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Europe Weekly: Tariff front-running fades, disinflation continues

While policymakers at the ECB indicated this week that they may be at the end of their easing cycle, we think they will probably make one more rate cut this year, in September. Meanwhile, we agree...

6th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (June)

The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to cut its policy rate by 100bp today, to 20.00%, came as a dovish surprise, and we now think the policy rate will now end this year at 17.00% (18.00%...

6th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Soft GDP data put July cut in play for RBA

With Australia's economic recovery faltering, there is a growing risk that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting in July, rather than in August as we currently forecast. However, even if the Bank...

6th June 2025 · 4 mins read