Bank of England Policy Announcement (30th Apr. 2026)

The Bank of England’s hawkish tilt around its decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% suggests the chances of near-term rate hikes are rising. If oil prices fall back to around $95pb as we expect in our baseline scenario, our best guess is still that rates will remain unchanged this year. But one or two hikes in the coming months are certainly possible, especially if energy prices remain around $115pb, or rise even further.