Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.25%, but we think the monetary easing cycle doesn’t have much further to go. We’re maintaining our forecast for only one more 25bp...

5th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Riksbank Policy Announcement (November 2025)

While the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and its forward guidance unchanged today, the economic data have improved significantly over the past few months and have given us greater confidence...

5th November 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will cut rates to 3.1% by end-2026

When the RBA left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it struck a rather even-handed tone on the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely given the ongoing strength...

4th November 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 2025)

When the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it remained even-handed about the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely, we still...

4th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Explaining our non-consensus views on central banks

We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to review the latest Fed and ECB decisions and preview the Bank of England’s November meeting. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to...

3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025)

The fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 32.9% y/y, will provide some comfort to policymakers after the road bump in the disinflation process in September and keeps the door open for monetary...

3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2025)

Recent developments reinforce the divergent outlooks for the Antipodean economies. The RBA has cut rates by just 75bp so far. Given the relative resilience of the Australian economy and ongoing signs...

3rd November 2025 · 1 min read

Asia Economics Update

Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (October)

The October PMI readings for most countries in Asia remained consistent with weak manufacturing activity. We expect economic growth in the region to soften in the near term and, with inflation likely...

3rd November 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Rapid housing rebound will keep RBA on the sidelines

Australia’s housing rally showed no signs of slowing in October. Given the RBA’s ongoing concerns about shelter inflation, the data reinforce our view that policy easing is unlikely to be on the...

3rd November 2025 · 3 mins read

US Economics Weekly

December rate cut still the most likely outcome

The Fed delivered a hawkish rate cut this week, with Chair Jerome Powell pushing back against market expectations for another at the next FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, we would argue that it makes more...

31st October 2025 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Focus shifts from monetary to fiscal policy

Despite the hawkish messaging from the Bank of Canada alongside its cut this week, we suspect it will be forced to resume lowering interest rates next year. For now, the attention shifts to fiscal...

31st October 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Czech strength, Russia banking risks, NBP meeting

Data released this week suggest that the Czech economic recovery is continuing to gather momentum. The risks to our GDP growth forecasts there have shifted to the upside and the central bank's easing...

31st October 2025 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

France & Spain: same budget impasse, diverging debt

Governments in France and Spain are both struggling to get 2026 budgets through parliament and significant fiscal consolidation is unlikely in either country. But while France’s debt ratio will trend...

31st October 2025 · 9 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

BoJ on course for January rate hike

While the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged this week, Governor Ueda signaled that the Board won’t wait much longer before resuming its tightening cycle. Indeed, with structural labour...

31st October 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA on an extended pause, but easing cycle not over

With underlying inflation in Australia having surprised materially to the upside in Q3, the RBA is all but certain to leave rates unchanged next week. However, unlike several other analysts we're not...

31st October 2025 · 5 mins read