Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to be followed by a further loss of momentum over the coming quarters. But, alongside CPI data which show that inflationary pressures... 13th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Video presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economy 1731502800 Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth discusses how Donald Trump’s return could influence the US economic outlook in this 22-minute video presentation.
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s public finances: alarm bells ringing The deterioration in Colombia’s public finances has spooked investors and, with the government showing no clear willingness to rein in spending, Colombian financial assets are likely to remain under... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) Another bigger-than-expected jump in headline consumer price inflation last month will be enough to convince a majority of MPC members that conditions are not yet right to begin easing policy. We now... 12th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer spending has further to run. With the Bank of Japan sounding more upbeat at their October meeting and... 12th November 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump win creates headache for Bank of Canada This week's labour market data and Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada's October policy meeting were both overshadowed by Trump's win in the US election given its potential impact on the... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that the economy is poised for a weak Q4. We expect growth to remain slow next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports... 8th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Our new forecasts after the Budget and the US election We’ve revised up our forecasts for UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates in response to the policies in the Budget. We have not changed our UK forecasts based on the results of the US election... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, against a backdrop of stubborn above-target inflation and concerns about the loose fiscal stance ahead of elections... 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2024) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in October means that the central bank is almost certain to deliver additional interest rate hikes at its upcoming meetings. The risks... 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak yen strengthens case for year-end rate hike The policies proposed by Donald Trump may well end up providing a small net boost to Japan’s economy. While higher tariffs will result in a small fall in export volumes, it now seems likely that the... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0 The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Fed slows pace of rate cuts; independence probably safe As expected, after a run of stronger activity and inflation data since it started its rate cutting cycle with a 50bp reduction in mid-September, the Fed opted for a more modest 25bp cut at the... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Nov.) As expected, after a run of stronger activity and inflation data since it started its rate cutting cycle with a 50bp reduction in mid-September, the Fed opted for a more modest 25bp cut at the... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
