Japan Economics Weekly 10-year JGB yield will reach 2% next year The government indicated this week that it will loosen fiscal policy by around 1% of GDP in the upcoming supplementary budget. Coupled with PM Takaichi giving BoJ Governor Ueda a free hand on when to... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cuts and strikes a dovish tone The South African Reserve Bank resumed its easing cycle today with a 25bp cut (to 6.75%) and the dovish accompanying communication increases our confidence that the SARB will cut the repo by another... 20th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our latest forecasts and calls to reflect key developments across the region. We expect the Middle East and North Africa to record very... 20th November 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has France’s RN turned moderate? As it has dropped plans for “Frexit”, scaled back its tax and spending promises and made overtures to business, the RN is worrying investors less than it did in the past. However, it is no more likely... 20th November 2025 · 16 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Aggregate Latin American growth slowed in Q3 and we doubt that there will be a... 20th November 2025 · 1 min read
Event Global Drop-In: Central bank December decisions and the 2026 policy outlook 18th December 2025, 3:00PM GMT The Bank of England and European Central Bank’s final decisions of 2025 follow a week after the Fed’s and close a year in which all three have been trying with mixed success to steer
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (October 28-29) The minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on 29 th October were unusually blunt, warning that “many” participants thought it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q3 GDP data out of Emerging Europe confirmed a growing divergence in the region, with... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM growth held up well in Q3, although headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation to fall below 2% soon Euro-zone inflation has hovered close to or above the 2% target for over a year, but we think it will fall to about 1.5% in January and average just 1.3% in 2026. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) Although headline inflation in South Africa rose, to 3.6% y/y, last month, the decline in core inflation, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to give policymakers at the Reserve Bank confidence that they can meet... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2025) Bank Indonesia left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% today for a second consecutive meeting but the accompanying communications remained dovish and we still think there’s scope for further... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India’s core inflation unlikely to rise much further Headline inflation in India has fallen to a multi-decade low, but core inflation is currently at its highest in 18 months. But even if the economy continues to perform well as we expect, low household... 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ: One last cut for the road We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of... 19th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2025) The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q expansion in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 reflects continued strength in domestic demand and adds to reasons to expect the central bank to hold off resuming its easing... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold, at 6.50% as expected today, and with pre-election fiscal loosening on the cards, the monetary easing cycle looks like it may stay paused for... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
