Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka hikes rates as Asian policymakers become more hawkish Today’s sharp increase in interest rates in Sri Lanka highlights the country’s vulnerability to the crisis in the Middle East, and is unlikely to be the last unless the crisis subsides soon. Please... 26th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) restarted its easing cycle at today’s meeting, reducing its policy rate by 25bp, to 3.75%, and we think another cut of the same size is likely in July too. 25th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed alert to rising price pressures The hawkish tone of the Fed’s late-April minutes shows it would be ready to demonstrate its inflation-fighting credentials if it felt compelled to do so. We judge this would require a broadening in... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft demand helping to keep inflation in check Data released this week suggest the hit to consumer demand from higher energy prices is helping to offset some of the direct inflationary impact on firms’ costs. This reduces the risk of second-round... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2026) The conflict in the Middle East will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on activity in energy importers, especially in Asia. Inflation has started to pick up and central banks... 22nd May 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market too weak to generate big second-round effects We have been saying for some time that the current economic backdrop is much less conducive to a long-lasting bout of inflation than it was in 2022. This week’s news only adds to that feeling. As a... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank Indonesia hikes, who will be next? Bank Indonesia delivered an unexpected 50bps rate hike earlier, driven primarily by concerns over rupiah weakness. We now see a further 50bps of tightening by end-2026. Attention now turns to meetings... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets rattled in Turkey, stagflation risks in Poland The ruling by a Turkish court which removed the opposition leader from his position has sparked capital outflows and will compound strains in the balance of payments resulting from the energy shock... 22nd May 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will lift rates to 2% by end-2027 We learned this week that the Japanese economy was in solid shape on the eve of the Iran war. Moreover, the May PMIs suggest that the Bank of Japan’s fears of a steep downturn are unlikely to... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Should the RBI let the rupee go? The rupee finally got some respite towards the end of this week, but not before falling to a fresh all-time low of 96.8/$ on Wednesday. Should the pressure on the rupee persist, it looks increasingly... 22nd May 2026 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2026) India’s economy will grow at its slowest rate since 2020 this year as a result of the energy shock. We think headline inflation will rise above the upper bound of the RBI’s 2-6% target range over the... 22nd May 2026 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA's work not done yet The jump in Australia's unemployment rate and the recent plunge in auction clearance rates suggest that the upside risks to our interest rate forecasts have diminished. Nonetheless, with underlying... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (April 2026) Although inflationary pressures eased in April, they will pick up again before long. Accordingly, we still think the Bank of Japan is likely to resume its tightening cycle sooner rather than later. 22nd May 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) The Central Bank of Egypt left interest rates unchanged at 19.00% for a second consecutive meeting today and, so long as the Strait of Hormuz reopens relatively soon, officials will probably be... 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update The JGB selloff is nearing a crucial point While FX intervention dominated the headlines a couple of weeks ago, Japan’s bond markets have come under increasing pressure. This Update argues that most of the past rise in yields has been benign... 21st May 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Apr 28-29) The minutes from the Fed’s late April meeting were even more hawkish than expected based on the initial post meeting communications, which had been largely unchanged despite some dissents. The most... 20th May 2026 · 2 mins read
