China Economics Weekly The PBOC can’t boost household credit demand Slowing credit growth in China is yet another sign of the dwindling consumption appetite of households. Bank lending to households has been contracting outright in recent months, even though liquidity... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC unlikely to kick off hiking cycle this year The dovish communications from the Bank of Canada this week, as well as hopes that a US-Iran peace deal is just round the corner, suggest the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged this... 12th June 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Higher inflation not just an energy problem May's weaker than expected core CPI outturn and the recent fall in oil prices will be some relief to the Fed, but the big picture remains that core PCE inflation is likely to remain above 3% for many... 12th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fujimori edges ahead, CPI prints, Copom to hold It's looking increasingly likely that right-wing candidate Fujimori will secure Peru's presidency. She's likely to govern on a conservative, market-friendly platform, but her ability to push through... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE may not follow the crowd, Starmer playing defence An interest rate hold next Thursday looks nailed on and there are good reasons why the Bank of England may not join the central bank hiking club this year. Meanwhile, the political row over defence... 12th June 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (May 2026) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 4.7% y/y in May keeps next week’s Copom meeting finely balanced between a hold and a 25bp cut. On balance, we think that the former is more likely. 12th June 2026 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (May 2026) India’s headline consumer price inflation picked up to a 15-month high of 3.9% y/y in May and further rises are going to follow. We think the RBI will start hiking interest rates soon. Consumer price... 12th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Suites of scenarios, models and European central banks The ECB's updated projections imply that at least one more interest rate hike will be necessary. But the absence of any clear guidance in yesterday's ECB press conference was arguably a dovish signal... 12th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Door now wide open for rate cuts in Hungary Hungary’s central bank had already been inching towards reducing interest rates and the big downside surprise in the May inflation figures has prompted us to pencil in a larger 50bp cut (to 5.75%) at... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South African inflation, Abiy’s next term Data due next week are likely to show a further rise in inflation in South Africa in May, strengthening the case for the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy again. But we think a hike in July will... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee support measures buy time, but aren’t a solution The combined RBI and government package of measures to support the rupee unveiled last Friday appears to have halted the currency’s slide, but it has failed to trigger a meaningful recovery. A... 12th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ on track to hike despite Ueda’s absence Following his unexpected hospitalisation, Governor Ueda will miss next week's BoJ meeting. However, with inflation pressures continuing to build, there will almost certainly still be a majority in... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMC Kevin Warsh’s first meeting back on the FOMC should be an eventful one, with the new Chair trying to tame a committee that is sounding a lot more hawkish. Indeed, we now judge that the Fed’s next move... 11th June 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB set to look through energy price shock Despite the ECB’s rate hike today, we think the SNB will leave its policy rate unchanged at zero next week. Higher energy prices have already pushed up energy inflation but overall inflation remains... 11th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update The ECB is not done yet After the ECB raised interest rates by 25bp today, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, Christine Lagarde gave nothing away about the Bank’s likely next move in the press conference. We might learn more... 11th June 2026 · 3 mins read
