US Economics Weekly Refunds, refunds everywhere but not a major stimulus Individuals have benefited from higher tax refunds this year and companies will soon benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, but we doubt that these will make a big difference to GDP growth. 24th April 2026 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB can resist rate hikes, Nigeria reshuffle, E. Africa fuel This week’s latest comments from SARB Governor Kganyago reaffirmed the growing risks of interest rate hikes. For now, though, a high policy rate and a strong external position are reasons we think... 24th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly USMCA, Kast’s fiscal plans, BCB to cut rates Comments from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer this week suggest seem to have dashed Mexico’s hopes of removing tariffs on autos, exports of which have been struggling. There are also... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stagflation shock not as big as businesses fear The net effect of the stream of data released this week will probably lead to some policymakers at the Bank of England worrying more about the upside risks to inflation than the downside risks to... 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the April’s weak surveys The larger-than-expected fall in euro-zone activity surveys in April challenges our view that the hit from the Iran war will be small. But the surveys have not always been a good guide to actual... 24th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s cabinet, political turmoil, Q1 GDP Hungary’s incoming Tisza government has made positive steps with the announcement of key cabinet posts, including foreign and finance ministers. Political developments elsewhere in the region provide... 24th April 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation worries outweigh growth risks The MPC minutes of the RBI’s April meeting – in which the repo rate was left unchanged at 5.25% – released this week suggest that the upside risks to inflation from the energy shock are a bigger... 24th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation risks continue to climb higher in Australia Australia's flash PMIs suggest that business conditions bounced back in April, while firms' hiring intentions strengthened in tandem. However, firms have yet to see any respite from intensifying price... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE to talk tough, but unlikely to deliver We expect the Bank of England to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday 30th April. But with the data over the last month likely to have raised concerns about the risk of second-round inflation... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rethinking Hungary’s path to the euro The Tisza government has made euro accession a key part of its economic plans. Its goal of being ready to enter by 2030 looks optimistic given that Hungary is some way away from meeting the Maastricht... 23rd April 2026 · 9 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will not rush into rate hikes The ECB is not going to raise its interest rates next week and policymakers are likely to say they will need to see more evidence of second-round effects on inflation before doing do. We think the... 23rd April 2026 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) Higher gasoline prices will weigh moderately on consumption, but there are signs that investment will broaden out beyond AI-related spending. We expect GDP growth to average 2.2% this year and next... 23rd April 2026 · 0 mins read
US Fed Watch Powell’s departure upstaged as Warsh readies Fed revamp The FOMC will leave the fed funds target range at 3.50–3.75% next week, while likely providing a slightly more hawkish policy statement. But assuming Chair Powell doesn’t go rogue at what should be... 23rd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr. 2026) The small fall in Mexican inflation, to 4.5% y/y, in the first half of April was driven by easing underlying price pressures and will be welcomed by the central bank. That’s increased the likelihood... 23rd April 2026 · 2 mins read
