Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2025) The stable Brazilian mid-month inflation reading for July (of 5.3% y/y), signs that underlying core inflation is easing, and the resilience of the real all but confirm that Copom won’t hike rates... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to accelerate it is monetary easing cycle today with a 200bp cut to its policy rate, to 18.00%, signals that policymakers are becoming more concerned about... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s gradualism poses upside risks to rates The minutes of the RBA's July meeting showed that the Board remains reluctant to declare victory in the war on inflation – a sentiment reiterated by Governor Bullock in a speech this week. We suspect... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade deal strengthens case for further BoJ tightening Japan managed to secure a reduction in US vehicle tariffs with minimal concessions of its own. While that could eventually prompt Trump to renege on his promises, as things stand the trade deal has... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ECB in “a good place”, how about euro-zone markets? The ECB has left rates unchanged and, with inflation at target, we now suspect its monetary easing cycle is over. So bond yields are unlikely in our view to fall much, particularly at the short end... 24th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB now likely to leave rates unchanged With the euro-zone economy holding up relatively well in the face of tariff uncertainty, inflation likely to stay close to the target and President Lagarde adopting a slightly more hawkish stance at... 24th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2025) The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was in line with expectations. While we are currently forecasting one more 25bp rate... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul 2025) The drop in Mexican inflation to 3.5% y/y in the first half of July means that Banxico is all but certain to deliver the clearly-signalled 25bp cut next month. It also lends support to our below... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2025) The decision by Turkish central bank to cut its one-week repo rate by 300bp today, to 43.00%, was a slight dovish surprise, but the accompanying communications remained hawkish and we expect the pace... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2025) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and... 24th July 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (July 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New... 24th July 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Your questions on Japan answered We held an online Drop-In session yesterday to discuss the latest developments in Japan’s economy and financial markets. This Update answers several of the questions that we received. 24th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch October rate hike looking increasingly likely The trade deal agreed upon between the US and Japan has removed a key downside risk and the Bank of Japan will probably present a more upbeat assessment of the economic outlook at next week's meeting... 24th July 2025 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Trade deal negotiations give cause for BoC to wait The recent rebound in core inflation and improved timely activity indicators will prompt the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold at 2.75% next week – not least given policymakers will also want to... 23rd July 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update No single tariff playbook for central banks While higher tariffs will cause some Asian economies to pursue slightly looser monetary policy than otherwise, domestic factors will be the key driving force behind rate decisions in most economies in... 23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Holding the (hawkish) line Despite calls within the FOMC for a rate cut at next week’s policy meeting, we expect the hawks to prevail – with tariff uncertainty still too elevated for the Fed to justify a policy shift, while the... 23rd July 2025 · 8 mins read
