Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (August 25)

12th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Weaker data support September rate cut

The weaker housing and trade data released this week support our call for a September rate cut, a view which investors are beginning to come round to.

8th August 2025 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

UK Weekly: A higher bar for further UK interest rate cuts

In some ways, the Bank of England’s hawkish tone at its policy meeting on Thursday makes sense. However, it’s striking just how little weight the Bank is placing on the downside risks to inflation. We...

8th August 2025 · 9 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2025)

The Labour Force Survey has once again made a mockery of the economist consensus, with the surprise 83,000 surge in employment in June followed by a 40,800 slump last month. We are now a bit more...

8th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, as expected, and its communications suggest a restart of the easing cycle remains some way off. We expect rates to...

8th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Europe Weekly: More US tariff threats; construction sector

Provided it stands the test of time, the deal agreed between the US and EU means that the bloc should be exempt from the 100% tariff that President Trump has threatened on semiconductor imports, as...

8th August 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin meeting, chip tariffs, hawkish CNB

The touted Trump-Putin meeting next week has re-focused attention on efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, but we are sceptical much will be achieved given Putin’s maximalist territorial...

8th August 2025 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: India caught in the US-Russia crossfire

The extra 25% US tariff on India for its continued economic ties with Russia, on top of the 25% tariff that took effect this week, would significantly dent India’s appeal as an alternative to China...

8th August 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Productivity growth picking up in New Zealand

While the Q2 labour force survey out of New Zealand showed that labour demand remains dismal, it's worth noting that firms have been squeezing more out of their existing employees. The resultant lift...

8th August 2025 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: Weaker bonus growth won’t prevent further rate hikes

Sluggish consumption and slower wage growth may convince the Bank of Japan to keep policy settings unchanged for longer. But amidst few signs that trade tensions have weighed on corporate profits so...

8th August 2025 · 5 mins read

US Rapid Response

Miran a good pick for the Fed

President Donald Trump’s decision to nominate Stephen Miran to replace Adriana Kugler as Fed Governor, albeit only on a temporary basis to begin with, is a welcome surprise. Miran is currently the...

7th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) lowered its policy rate by a smaller 25bp, to 7.75%, as expected at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications suggest that cuts are likely to continue in...

7th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank easing cycle will be slow and short

Next week, we expect Norges Bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% but reiterate that it is likely to loosen policy later this year. We forecast two 25bp cuts by year-end.

7th August 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Saudi’s austere turn, CBE Monetary Policy Report takeaways

Q2 budget figures show that Saudi Arabia's deficit is on track to be larger than the full-year projections set out in the Budget. Officials are turning to fiscal consolidation (via cuts to capital...

7th August 2025 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Update

Rates cut to 4.00%, but BoE appears in no rush to cut again soon

Although the Bank of England cut interest rates today by 25 basis points (bps), from 4.25% to 4.00%, it showed some signs that it may cut rates slower and/or not as far as our forecast of a decline to...

7th August 2025 · 4 mins read