UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2026) The drop in CPI inflation from 3.3% in March to 2.8% in April (consensus and CE forecast 3.0%) feels like the lull before the storm and tells us very little about the persistence of the surge in... 20th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May '26) The Gulf economies are set for their steepest contraction since the early 1980s this year. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to sharp falls in hydrocarbon production, even in those countries... 19th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM central banks might be next to hike? The EM central banks that have tightened monetary conditions in response to the energy shock (Turkey, Pakistan, Philippines) are facing balance of payments strains and very large inflation shocks... 19th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (May 2026) Given the RBA’s ongoing concerns about inflation expectations becoming unanchored, we think it will tighten policy a bit further still. 19th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: What would $150 oil mean for Asian economies and markets? 28th May 2026, 9:00AM BST The risk of a substantial rise in oil prices increases with every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Asia Economics Update Rate hike would provide only brief respite for rupiah The Indonesian rupiah has continued to slide over the past week and, while we think intervention in the foreign exchange market will remain Bank Indonesia’s primary course of action to prop up the... 18th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q1 2026) Chile’s economy contracted by a larger-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q1, but the central bank will be more worried about rising inflation. And while our base case is that the policy rate will remain on... 18th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: Q1 GDP drop keeps door for rate cut open Israel’s economy already appears to have picked up following the war-induced fall in GDP in Q1. But even so, the drop in output last quarter, taken together with the strength of the shekel and weak... 18th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Strait worries grow; bad news still bad news for bonds Although bonds have sometimes rallied after severe oil price shocks, we suspect that’s not on the cards just yet. Meanwhile, flattening yield curves at the “ultra-long” end suggest, among other things... 18th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1 2026) & CPI (Apr. 2026) The 0.2% y/y contraction in Russian GDP in Q1 underlines that the economy had entered the Iran war with very weak momentum and we’re expecting GDP to do little more than stagnate this year, despite... 15th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA impeachment, Angola & Zambia rate cuts This week’s restart of impeachment proceedings against South Africa’s President Ramaphosa threatens to stall the government’s reform agenda and, in turn, harm the prospect of achieving sustained GDP... 15th May 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly This time is transitory? Kevin Warsh now begins his four-year term as Fed Chair, but the April price data suggest he will have a tough time persuading his FOMC colleagues that they should cut interest rates again in this... 15th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC still biding its time while war plays out The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s April meeting didn’t give too much away, though the optimist in us would argue that the tone was less hawkish than in prior communications. This... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil inflation, COP drop, Venezuela’s restructuring The latest macro data keep the door open to monetary easing in Brazil, but a rise in energy prices or an escalation of the scandal involving presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro that weighs more... 15th May 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly One battle after another for INR, pump prices hiked Policymakers’ concerns about the depreciation of the rupee have again come to the fore this week, but the hike in gold import tariffs has done little to prevent the currency from sliding further... 15th May 2026 · 4 mins read
