Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian geopolitics, crunch time in Turkey Armenia’s election on Sunday could mark a further step in the country’s shift away from Russia and towards the West, adding tensions at a time when Russia’s geopolitical leverage has weakened... 5th June 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI keeps rates on hold, but hikes will materialise soon The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today as it continues to “closely monitor developments” in the Middle East. But it is clear that rupee weakness remains a concern... 5th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan edges closer to policy normalisation BoJ Governor Ueda strongly hinted this week that a rate hike is imminent, with policymakers growing concerned about falling behind the inflation curve. With wage growth remaining historically strong... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB unlikely to raise interest rates very far A 25bp rate hike next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, looks nailed on and we suspect that will be followed by another in July. But second-round effects of higher energy prices on inflation... 4th June 2026 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Bar to Fed hikes appears relatively low Recent Fed speeches suggest that, absent a sudden surge in oil prices, the FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged over the summer. It is shaping up to be an extremely close call beyond then, however... 4th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: investors lose faith as Prabowo doubles down The latest sharp falls in Indonesia’s financial markets reflect growing concerns that President Prabowo is doubling down on his populist and interventionist approach to policymaking. The central bank... 4th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ hikes not a threat to the global bond rally It’s increasingly clear the Bank of Japan will resume its hiking cycle this month; on its own we don’t think that’s a big threat to global bond markets even if the central bank ultimately moves more... 4th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Softer data give BoC some breathing room The downside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth and limited passthrough of higher oil prices to core inflation so far gives the Bank of Canada scope to keep interest rates on hold again next week... 3rd June 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weathering the storm Past shocks – domestic and external – have tended to lead to large falls in Egypt’s currency and a sharp slowdown in growth. But the economy looks better placed to weather the current spillovers from... 3rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) While we suspect the labour market is too weak to generate big second-round effects, the inevitable rise in CPI inflation from 2.8% in April to a peak of 4.0% early next year under our baseline... 3rd June 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q1 2026) The weakness in the Q1 GDP print belies the fact that domestic demand was still growing at a healthy clip. Even so, it increasingly looks like the RBA won’t be in a rush to resume its tightening cycle... 3rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Fiscal, monetary policy to act as a shock absorber Higher crude oil revenues are likely to allow Ghana’s government to loosen fiscal policy which, taken together with the lagged impact of the large monetary easing cycle, should support the economy. We... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) Despite hawkish noises from the MPC, the recent softness in the inflation data mean that the central bank will likely hold off from hiking interest rates in the coming months. 2nd June 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing market correction is underway Australian house prices fell for a second straight month in May, and leading indicators suggest that the decline has further to run. However, with inflationary pressures still running hot, the housing... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Minimum Wage Decision 2026/27 The strong increase in the minimum wage this year makes it more likely that wage growth will overshoot the RBA’s expectations, bolstering the case for additional policy tightening. 2nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
