Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher neutral rate need not prompt more tightening The evidence that the neutral rate of interest has continued to rise is mixed. And with excess demand now clearly diminishing, we’re not convinced that further monetary tightening is warranted. 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation risks show little sign of abating The September CPI and PPI data delivered a decidedly “discouraging” message for the Fed, to use Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee’s words, with core inflation on both measures surprising to the... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Parsing Banxico’s minutes, Brazil’s pension debate The dovish minutes to the last Banxico meeting may have been aimed at ramming home the point that policymakers won’t mechanically follow the Fed in raising rates. But in any case, the fall in the peso... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa MTBPS, Nigeria’s inflation surprise South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to reaffirm the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline at Wednesday’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), although fading... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia sanctions shift, Polish core inflation softens The US seems to be moving towards (additional) sanctions relief for Russia, but the macroeconomic consequences are likely to be limited without a rollback of European sanctions (which seems much less... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank Indonesia: MSCI threat puts rate hike in play Bank Indonesia is likely to leave rates on hold at its meeting next week, but today’s sharp market sell-off following MSCI’s threat to downgrade Indonesia to standalone status raises the prospect of a... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update French OATs will remain Euro-zone’s problem child We think the selloff in French OATs has further to run over the coming year and spreads could conceivably rise much further, perhaps to around 200bp, given that attempts to put France’s public... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly PPI weakness masks persistent price pressures September’s decline in producer prices should not be interpreted as evidence that inflation is fading. The fall was driven by a handful of idiosyncratic factors, while a closer look at the data... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Looser labour market means policy is tight enough The RBA argued that monetary policy was only “somewhat restrictive” at its September meeting. However, the Bank’s decision to lift the cash rate further at that meeting means that policy is now more... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation outlook doesn’t justify market rate expectations Our latest deep dive into the drivers of inflation reinforces our view that markets are overstating the risk of persistent price pressures and pricing in too many interest rate hikes. After rising in... 15th October 2026 · 17 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda’s external pressures force aggressive tightening The Bank of Uganda’s (BoU) decision to raise its policy rate by 225bp to 12.00% at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the deterioration in the country’s external position. So long as global... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2026) EM growth appears to have weakened in Q3 but we think it will accelerate this quarter. Inflation is set to rise further and, with policymakers turning cautious, we have pencilled in further rate hikes... 14th October 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s debt burden to remain on a downwards path Egypt’s public finances still look poor on the surface, but there are reasons to think that the public debt burden will decline over the coming years. That will have positive spillover effects... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS leaves policy on hold, further moves unlikely The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left monetary policy settings unchanged today, and we think they will remain on hold in the near term. Although growth should remain strong, inflation is... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the ECB intervene in bond markets? Bond markets are a long way from needing ECB intervention – in the recent past, policymakers have only got twitchy when 10-year sovereign spreads were around 250bp. If spreads approached those levels... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (October 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. There are no signs that higher interest rates are resulting in tighter financial conditions or... 13th October 2026 · 1 min read
