Canada Economics Weekly Bank could still thread the (narrowing) policy needle We still see scope for the Bank of Canada to stall rate hikes until early next year given the looming CUSMA renegotiation and lack of major fiscal stimulus. However, with global oil benchmarks back... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Unpacking a landmark week at the Fed A landmark week in the history of the Federal Reserve concludes with interest rate expectations little changed. 1st May 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB’s balancing act Data released this week add to the evidence that the hit to the economy from higher energy prices could be a bit bigger than we have assumed in our baseline forecasts. But the upside risks to... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Making sense of BanRep’s hold, Mexico’s export boom Colombia’s central bank (BanRep) defied expectations for another rate hike this week, opting to keep rates unchanged instead, which may raise concerns that the Board is taking President Petro’s... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks indicate rising risk of near-term hikes We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to review the latest Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions and what their communications imply for the future. (Recording available here.) This Update... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Three key points when swimming in a sea of scenarios Energy prices are currently a bit higher than those incorporated into our baseline scenario and the Bank of England’s scenarios A and B, which increases the chances of the Bank of England raising... 1st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Plenty of inflation still in the pipeline for Australia While the pickup in Australia’s inflation rate in Q1 fell short of the analyst consensus, it remains far too high for the RBA’s comfort. Moreover, with the indirect effects of higher energy prices on... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The worst is yet to come for Australia’s housing market Australian house prices all but ground to a halt last month. And with affordability set to deteriorate further in the near term, we expect house prices to fall outright before long. Much to the RBA’s... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lagarde prepares the ground for rate hikes While today’s decision to leave the ECB deposit rate at 2.0% was expected, President Lagarde used the press conference to signal that interest rates will rise. Unless there is a big drop-back in... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE on hold for now, but rate hike risks are rising The Bank of England’s further hawkish tilt while leaving interest rates unchanged at 3.75% suggests the chances of near-term rate hikes are rising. If oil prices fall back to about $95pb as in our... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (April 2026) While the ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today was expected and the monetary policy statement gives little away, the chances of rate hikes later this year appear to be... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q1 2026 Provisional) The larger-than-expected 0.8% q/q contraction in Mexico’s GDP was driven by broad-based weakness across all main sectors and strengthens the case for a 25bp cut at Banxico’s meeting next week. 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (30th Apr. 2026) The Bank of England’s hawkish tilt around its decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% suggests the chances of near-term rate hikes are rising. If oil prices fall back to around $95pb as we expect... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ keen to hike but risks tilted towards further delay We are sending this publication one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed due to a public holiday on 1st May. The Bank of Japan is clearly worried about the inflationary... 30th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Apr. 2026) 29th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Powell remaining on the Board makes Warsh’s difficult task even harder The FOMC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, accompanied by moderately more hawkish communications, was overshadowed by Chair Jerome Powell announcing in the subsequent press... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
