Capital Daily What the Fed’s “risk-management” cut means for markets We think the post-FOMC rebound in long-dated Treasury yields will continue over the remainder of the easing cycle, as will the modest recovery in the US dollar. 18th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2025) The sharp decline in output last quarter puts a bumper 50bp cut in play for the RBNZ at its October meeting. Risks to our forecast for a terminal rate of 2.5% are also tilted to the downside. 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2025) The Brazilian central bank’s statement accompanying the decision to leave the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00% remained hawkish – but a little less so than at the last meeting in July. And with growth... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed on board with further loosening despite high inflation The FOMC is now (sort of) on board with two further 25bp rate cuts this year but continues to anticipate less loosening in 2026 than markets have recently priced in, in part because it has become more... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update 25bp cut but Bank unwilling to commit to more yet Alongside the decision to cut its policy rate by 25p today, the Bank of Canada dropped its previous forward guidance hinting at more cuts to come. Nonetheless, Governor Tiff Macklem’s comments in the... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep 2025) 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2025) 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to follow ECB and keep rates on hold The Riksbank will keep its policy rate at 2% next week as recent economic data has been stronger than expected, reducing the need for further loosening. While the risks are towards are a further cut... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea unpacked: the outlook for the year ahead Korea’s economy has rebounded strongly in recent months. However, we don’t expect this to last. Weaker exports, fading fiscal support and the continued downturn in the property market are likely to... 16th September 2025 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed has the green light to cut The August CPI was the last hurdle to the Fed lowering interest rates next week, and without any marked pickup in inflation, a cut looks certain. Despite calls from Trump loyalists for a 50bp move, we... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Record high TSX won’t prevent rate cuts The surge in the TSX this year has owed a lot to the strength in gold prices, rather than reflecting domestic economic conditions. Accordingly, the near record high in the TSX this week will have... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA current account, Ghana GDP, Nigeria fiscal policy Data out this week showed that South Africa’s current account deficit has widened, but the shortfall is still small and suggests the rand will continue to hold up and that the Reserve Bank can cut... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rising inflation expectations adding to the BoE’s nerves The recent rises in households’ inflation expectations will be making the Bank of England more nervous about the outlook for inflation. This feeds into our new forecast that the Bank will keep... 12th September 2025 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Q4 Outlook, inflation bottoms out, China-India-US relations The main message from our Q4 India Economic Outlook published this week is that while punitive US tariffs will weigh on growth over the coming quarters, India is likely to remain a relative bright... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
