Canada Economics Weekly US-Iran peace deal brings growth risks back to the fore The sharp drop in global oil benchmarks on the back of the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz shifts the balance of risks back towards weaker growth and away from higher inflation... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly The end of the Iran war and what it means for Africa Many economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly those in East Africa, will be key beneficiaries from the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the drop back in global energy prices, although the... 19th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia votes, Copom confusion Right-wing candidate de la Espriella is well placed to secure Colombia’s presidency on Sunday, paving the way for a shift towards more business-friendly policies and fiscal austerity. But he will... 19th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lower energy prices ease pressure on the ECB The decline in energy prices this week suggests that energy inflation in the euro-zone has already peaked. And with little evidence of second-round effects on wages, the chance of the ECB raising... 19th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia back in the spotlight, hawkish central banks MSCI is expected to announce on Tuesday whether Indonesia will retain its emerging market status, with recent reforms and press reports suggesting that a downgrade to frontier market status is... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to narrow rate corridor, no signs of healthier credit The PBOC has announced plans to increase its control over overnight interest rates, marking another step in its efforts to adopt a more orthodox policy making approach. Still, the PBOC's multiple... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional easing cycle has further to run Emerging Europe has come through the energy shock with only a minor loss of momentum and (generally) contained inflation. We think the region will be one of the few globally where monetary easing... 19th June 2026 · 24 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Urgency for further monetary tightening diminishing The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz vindicates the BoJ’s assessment that downside risks to economic activity have declined. But the resulting plunge in crude oil prices also means that inflationary... 19th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Warsh era begins on a firmly hawkish note Kevin Warsh’s highly anticipated first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair did not fail to live up to expectations. While the promise of significant institutional reform will matter a lot over the months... 18th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Diverging rate paths Latin America has been resilient to the energy shock but other headwinds are likely to hold back regional growth to around 2% over the coming years, making it the worst-performing EM region. The... 18th June 2026 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A few more Czech rate hikes in the pipeline The communications following the Czech National Bank’s (CNB’s) decision to hike the policy rate today didn’t commit the MPC to further tightening. But with growth likely to exceed consensus... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) The decision by the Czech National Bank (CNB) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 3.75% marks the start of what is likely to be a modest tightening cycle, with perhaps just one or two more 25bp moves... 18th June 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update BoE talks a good hawkish game, but is unlikely to deliver The Bank of England’s repeated pledge that it is “ready to act as necessary” (i.e. hike interest rates), alongside its decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, was no surprise. But provided the US... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Jun. 2026) The Bank of England’s pledge that it is “ready to act as necessary” by hiking interest rates, alongside its decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, was no surprise. But provided the US-Iran deal... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB rates will remain unchanged, all eyes on the franc The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at zero today and we think it will keep rates on hold over the next couple of years. Its commentary shows that the Bank is confident that the current monetary... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
