US Economics Update

Will Trump capture the FOMC?

President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook looks set to go the courts, which will determine the extent and limits of the administration’s ability to influence monetary policy. It remains...

26th August 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold again today at 6.50%, and we think that the scope for monetary easing ahead of parliamentary elections in April 2026 will be limited. While the...

26th August 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Update

Are interest rate cuts helping the UK economy?

The Bank of England’s interest rate cuts haven’t boosted the economy much partly as they have been dampened by global developments. To deliver a bigger boost, the Bank would need to cut rates faster...

26th August 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBA Minutes (Aug. 2025)

Although the RBA will retain its cautious approach for the time being, we believe the Bank will ultimately cut rates further than most are predicting .

26th August 2025 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

US Weekly: Labour demand could be even weaker

In the wake of the disappointing July payrolls release, which revealed an unexpected near-stagnation in employment over the summer, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his Jackson Hole speech that...

22nd August 2025 · 6 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Softer price data keeps two rate cuts on the table

The inflation outlook has improved notably in recent days, with core price pressures modest in July and businesses' selling price expectations holding steady this month. While it is still not certain...

22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole (Aug 2025)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech was more dovish than markets were braced for. His conclusion that “ with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may...

22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. ’25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with...

22nd August 2025 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Retail Sales (June 2025)

The strong rebound in June retail sales should reassure the Bank of Canada that consumer spending is holding up, although the flash estimate of a drop back in sales in July implies that growth remains...

22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: Kenya’s finance scramble, South Africa CPI and rates

Kenya’s efforts to deal with its fiscal problems may alleviate short-term pressures, but we remain concerned that the path to avoiding sovereign default in the medium term remains narrow. Elsewhere...

22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Asia Weekly: A close call in Korea, BI’s surprise cut

While most analysts expect the Bank of Korea to keep rates unchanged at Thursday’s meeting, we are forecasting a cut. Although GDP growth rebounded last quarter, the poor prospects for construction...

22nd August 2025 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: RBNZ turns dovish, Australia discusses tax reform

When the RBNZ cut rates by 25bp at its meeting this week, it acknowledged that it would need to lower the policy rate all the way to 2.5% this cycle – consistent with our longstanding forecast. And...

22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: External headwinds still not doing much damage

There are mounting signs that higher US tariffs are starting to weigh on exports. However, with business investment holding up and inflation still strong, the financial markets are coming around to...

22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (August 2025)

India is not anywhere near as dependent on final US demand as many other EMs are but a total tariff of 50% would be large enough to have a material impact on GDP growth. If it sticks, the resulting...

21st August 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Abdalla stays on as rate decision looms, PIF Annual Report

Hassan Abdalla’s term as Egypt’s central bank governor was renewed this week which bodes well for the ongoing shift to macro orthodoxy and broader structural reform. First up on his agenda will be...

21st August 2025 · 6 mins read