Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM rates: where the market could be surprised

Our EM interest rate forecasts generally lie on the dovish side. But, in particular, we think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts that will be delivered in Brazil and...

20th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

20th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The jump in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 3.5% y/y masked continued weakness in core inflation, which leaves the door open for the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle to continue. We remain...

20th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Aug. 2025)

Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its benchmark 7-day repo reverse repo rate by 25bp to 5.00% today and, with inflation subdued and GDP growth likely to slow, we think there’s scope for more easing over the...

20th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Chinese government bonds’ fortunes could still turn

We think Chinese government bond yields will be on the way back down before long, despite the PBOC’s apparent caution around rate cuts.

20th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Riksbank Policy Announcement (August 2025)

The Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged today, judging that the recent deterioration in the economy does not require a policy response. We think that the economy is likely to recover in the coming...

20th August 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025)

While the rise in CPI inflation from 3.6% in June to 3.8% (consensus and Capital Economics forecast 3.7%) will fuel speculation that further interest rate cuts are off the agenda this year, the Bank...

20th August 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by year-end

When the RBNZ slashed rates by 25bp today, it effectively endorsed our long-held forecast for a below-consensus terminal rate of 2.5%. However, with the Bank judging the balance of risks to the...

20th August 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBNZ Meeting (Aug. 2025)

When the RBNZ slashed rates by 25bp today, it clearly signalled that there is more easing in the pipeline. Accordingly, we’re more confident than ever in our below-consensus terminal rate forecast of...

20th August 2025 · 2 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Aug. 2025)

We now expect growth to average 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year, before slowing slightly in 2026. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to...

19th August 2025 · 1 min read

UK Economics Update

Why is inflation higher in the UK than in the euro-zone?

The recent strength of inflation in the UK relative to that in the euro-zone appears to be mainly due to rises in “regulated” (i.e. government-set) prices, tax rises, and rents. These upward pressures...

19th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel: GDP contraction should prove short-lived

The unexpected contraction in the Israeli economy in Q2 amid the war with Iran should reverse this quarter, and so we think it is unlikely that the Bank of Israel will cut interest rates at its...

18th August 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q2 2025)

The Chilean economy isn’t as weak as the slowdown in GDP growth to 0.4% q/q would suggest; there was a large drag from net trade while domestic demand remained very strong. This, alongside the...

18th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SSA inflation trending down and rates will follow

Many central banks across Sub-Saharan Africa have cut interest rates over the past year or so and Nigeria will soon join the rate-cutting club. With inflation low or falling in most countries, we...

18th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q2 2025)

The weaker-than-expected 0.5% q/q expansion in Colombia’s economy is unlikely to change the central bank’s thinking and we remain comfortable with our above-consensus interest rate forecast.

15th August 2025 · 2 mins read