UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: UK-US trade deal not a game changer; BoE’s hawkish shift We have argued that higher US tariffs wouldn’t reduce UK GDP by much. It follows that the UK-US trade deal won’t be a game changer. We also argued that investors had got ahead of themselves in... 9th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Exports to US surge, dovish BSP Exports from Vietnam and Taiwan to the US have surged in recent months as US buyers have front-loaded orders ahead of the introduction of tariffs. The strength in exports is likely to continue in the... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update More UK rate cuts coming, but not as quickly as investors expected The Bank of England predictably cut interest rates from 4.50% to 4.25% today and gave the impression that it will continue to cut rates at the current pace of 25 basis points (bps) every quarter. As a... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Announcement (8th May 2025) While cutting interest rates from 4.50% to 4.25% today, the Bank of England poured some cold water on the markets’ expectations that it is going to speed up the pace of rate cuts. As it happens, we no... 8th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (May 2025) While the Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% today, policymakers indicated that a rate cut is likely this year given the weakness of the economy. We now think that they are likely to cut... 8th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Fed caution could be bad for Treasuries, good for the dollar We still think investors are expecting too many Fed cuts over the remainder of this year, and our base case remains that Treasury yields will rise and the US dollar will strengthen. 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (May 2025) Brazil’s central bank hiked the Selic rate by a further 50bp, to 14.75%, today and officials made clear in the accompanying statement that the tightening cycle is near an end. We are sticking with our... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update US Fed stands pat amid tariff uncertainty The minimalist statement issued by the Fed at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting gave no hint that it was considering a further cut to the fed funds rate, at least not any time soon. As was almost... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (May) The minimalist statement issued by the Fed at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting gave no hint that it was considering a further cut to the fed funds rate, at least not any time soon. As was almost... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2025) Although our base case remains that the hit to UK GDP growth from US tariffs will be relatively small, the downside risks to our below consensus forecast for GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 have increased... 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (May) The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.50%, but we think that this may mark the end of its easing cycle. Our forecast for the policy rate to remain on hold at 3.50% over the... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Monetary easing alone won’t cut it Chinese policymakers have announced a raft of new monetary easing measures. These will help to shore up growth at the margin. But any boost to credit demand will be modest and today’s moves are no... 7th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could a stronger yen thwart further BoJ tightening? In current circumstances it would take a large strengthening of the yen to push inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. And with profit margins close to record highs, the hit from a stronger... 6th May 2025 · 4 mins read
