Japan Economics Weekly Government cushioning blow from energy shock Japan’s government is capping gasoline prices at levels below last year’s average and is also releasing crude oil from stockpiles to prevent shortages. However, should crude oil prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on energy markets and the UK economy remains highly uncertain. As things stand, we suspect the most likely scenario is one in which the conflict comes to... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada to stand pat amid oil market turmoil The Bank of Canada is all but certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week and will likely play down the risk that higher oil prices might warrant interest rate hikes. Nonetheless, if WTI... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as it waits for more clarity With the FOMC set to keep the fed funds target range between 3.50% and 3.75% next week, the focus will be on any changes to the policy statement and new economic projections. The most hawkish outcome... 12th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2026) The conflict in the Middle East will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on energy importers, especially in Asia. EM energy producers outside the Gulf will see a terms-of-trade... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2026) Inflation in Brazil fell to 3.8% y/y in February which keeps an interest rate cut in play at next week’s meeting, despite the energy price shock. Much will depend on developments in the Middle East... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to stress readiness to respond to energy shock The ECB is not going to respond to the jump in energy prices by raising interest rates next week. But we expect it to state that the upside risks to inflation have increased, implying that the chance... 12th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) opted to leave interest rates unchanged today, suggesting that – for now – it deems the effective 300bp of tightening delivered via the interest rate corridor sufficient... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: Delayed cuts, cancelled cuts or interest rate hikes? There are plausible scenarios in which the Middle East conflict prompts the Bank of England to delay interest rate cuts, cancel interest rate cuts or hike interest rates. As delay seems the most... 12th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: Is a BOJ rate hike coming sooner? Insights after the March meeting 19th March 2026, 8:00AM GMT The Bank of Japan faces a very different challenge from most of its global peers.
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will hike rates again in April Provided that crude oil prices don’t rise much further, their recent increase won’t lift inflation to levels that the Bank of Japan would find intolerable. But with underlying inflation holding up... 12th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update What do higher oil prices mean for Canada? Higher oil prices are positive for the Canadian economy and will boost inflation but, unless prices rise significantly further and stay there for several months, we doubt the Bank of Canada would... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How could the Middle East conflict hit UK housing? The possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than we expect, or even rate hikes, and the possible hit to the economy from the surge in energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East risks... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Policy response leaves Egypt better placed to weather war Egypt hasn’t been involved directly in the conflict in the Middle East but it is one of the most vulnerable EMs to the indirect effects, especially higher energy prices and tighter global financial... 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa, the Middle East conflict & the rates outlook Weak core inflation pressures in South Africa mean that the Reserve Bank is less likely to rule out monetary easing in the face of the energy price shock than most other EM central banks. If the... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
