China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Apr. 2025) The meeting readout signalled that monetary policy easing is still on its way and that existing plans for fiscal spending will be accelerated. It stopped short of committing to additional deficit... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: PMI data suggest limited impact from tariff turmoil Australia's Flash PMIs suggest that the initial impact of global trade tensions has been modest, with output remaining firmly in expansionary territory in April. What's more, with domestic demand... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Strong inflation will prompt further policy tightening At its meeting next week, the Bank of Japan will reportedly push back the timing for meeting its 2% inflation target on a sustained basis. That would be a mistake though as the fallout from global... 25th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are generally less exposed to higher US... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (April 2025) The latest data suggest that the world economy got off to a weak start in 2025 even before most tariffs were implemented. While tariff front-running provided a boost to global industrial activity and... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in the first half of April, to 4.0% y/y, is unlikely to shift Banxico’s focus away from the weakness of the economy and we expect it to deliver another... 24th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. At first glance, Australia and New Zealand should be fairly insulated from the brunt of the US’s... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will hike again in July The Bank of Japan will revise down its forecasts for GDP growth at the upcoming meeting and keep policy settings unchanged. However, we expect the Board to signal continued confidence in meeting its... 24th April 2025 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) We are assuming that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs becomes permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China which will face a steeper 60% levy. If Congress quickly redirects... 23rd April 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to stagflationary impact of tariffs The latest flash PMIs suggest that tariffs and trade policy uncertainty weighed on activity and confidence in most DMs at the start of Q2 and boosted price pressures in the US. 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Trade war not weighing on business confidence The available business surveys show that confidence hasn’t weakened after Liberation Day. However, with price pressures coming off the boil, the Bank of Japan will continue to tighten policy only... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Pressure on Powell points to steeper curve Fears over the independence of the Fed can now be added to the growing list of things troubling investors. Market moves over the past couple of days shed some light on the likely market consequences... 22nd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s interest rate cuts have a lot further to go The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to cut interest rates on Thursday and we think monetary conditions will be loosened a lot further than most expect over the course of this year. That said... 22nd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) The weaker-than-expected Polish industrial production and wage data for March have increased the probability that the central bank (NBP) will restart its easing cycle at its next meeting in May, but... 22nd April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Firing Powell would just be the beginning of the Fed's end If President Donald Trump does fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, we suspect that the initial market reaction might not be disastrous, as long as Trump quickly lines up a relatively-qualified replacement... 21st April 2025 · 4 mins read
