Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will lift rates to neutral level of 2% by mid-2027 Japan’s economy has coped with the energy shock well and we expect GDP growth to remain solid. While next year’s sales tax cut could result in inflation falling to very low levels, underlying... 21st September 2026 · 17 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s final rate cut, Nigeria and SA to hold rates The Angolan central bank's latest rate cut delivered this week is likely to be its last for some time. Next week, we expect the Central Bank of Nigeria to hold at 26.50%, as inflation remains too high... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly What to make of the Fed’s hawkish tilt While we expect the Fed to hike interest rates by more than the latest Summary of Economic Projections imply in the near term, we also think a slowdown in growth in 2028 will force the Fed to... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks diverge, Milei bets on taming inflation The Brazilian central bank’s statement at this week’s meeting left the door open for further interest rate cuts and, taken together with the worsening growth outlook, we’ve pencilled in a 25bp... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Higher mortgage rates to squeeze households for longer The revisions to our forecasts this week mean the drag on activity from higher mortgage rates will be a bit bigger and last longer than we previously thought. This adds to our view that the coming... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s tightening cycle has much further to run The Bank of Japan accelerated its tightening cycle by lifting interest rates to a 31-year high of 1.25% today and we think it will tighten policy more rapidly than most anticipate over the coming... 18th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Sep. 26) The Bank of Japan lifted interest rates to a 31-year high of 1.25% today and we think it will tighten policy more rapidly than most anticipate over the coming months. 18th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA won’t crush the labour market to rein in inflation With RBA Governor Bullock arguing this week that upside risks to inflation are materialising, a rate hike at the Bank’s September meeting looks like a done deal. And given that headline inflation will... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Warsh puts his foot down, boosting the dollar While much of the drop in long-term government bond yields over the past couple of days reflects relief from lower oil prices, policy news from the Fed and the BoE (which has slowed its QT programme)... 17th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to drag its feet a bit longer on hikes The Bank of Canada’s communications suggest it is unlikely to hike in October unless the September CPI data deliver a large upside surprise, or oil prices rise much further. More generally, despite... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Energy-driven inflation won’t force the SNB’s hand We think that the SNB will leave its policy rate unchanged at next week’s meeting. While higher energy prices have pushed inflation higher, underlying price pressures are weak and inflation is set to... 17th September 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE ready to raise rates, but not as far as investors fear We have revised up our Bank of England forecasts and now expect interest rates to be raised from 3.75% to 4.00% at the next policy meeting in November and to 4.25% in February. Our previous forecast... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (September 2026) The decision by the Czech National Bank to leave the policy rate at 3.75% is likely to be followed by a resumption of the tightening cycle in November (with a 25bp move) and we think one further hike... 17th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (17th Sep. 2026) For more detailed and up to date analysis, see here. The Bank of England left interest rates at 3.75% today and announced that it will reduce its holding of gilts by £368bn over the next eight years... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly East-West pipeline, rate hikes, Morocco’s election The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline poses a downside risk to our growth forecast. The fiscal hit could also be significant, limiting scope for a policy response to support the economy... 17th September 2026 · 5 mins read
