US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Jun 2025) The Fed’s new interest rate projections still just about show a median of 50bp of cuts to its policy rate for this year, but it was very close. 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Diverging paths in the face of US protectionism Emerging Europe is generally less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but we have still nudged down some of our GDP growth forecasts for this year. We think the region will... 18th June 2025 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenarios This Update outlines potential outcomes of the Iran-Israel conflict and teases out the implications for the region, the global economy and commodity and financial markets. One point that emerges is... 18th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May' 25.) The fact that South Africa’s headline inflation was unchanged at 2.8% y/y in May, lends more evidence that the SARB should be unworried about underlying price pressures in the economy. Coming... 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2025) While the Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp this morning and suggested there was a reasonable chance of a further cut this year, the outlook is uncertain and underlying economic conditions aren’t... 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Policy Rate (June 2025) Bank Indonesia today left interest rates unchanged at 5.50%, but as dovish comments in the press conference by Governor Perry Warjiyo make clear, this is unlikely to mark the end of the central bank’s... 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2025) With services inflation still elevated at 4.7%, the small fall in CPI inflation from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May (CE 3.2%, consensus 3.4%) won’t prompt the Bank of England to deviate from its recent... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico has weathered the US’s shift toward protectionism better than many feared... 17th June 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates before year-end The Bank of Japan decided to taper its bond purchases at a slower pace from next year and retained its pessimistic outlook for the economy. However, we expect that mounting upside risks to the Bank’s... 17th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Petro dashes Colombia’s fiscal credibility The Colombian government’s fiscal plans unveiled late on Friday will have dashed any lingering hopes that policymakers would try to stabilise the public debt-to-GDP ratio, at least ahead of next year... 16th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal plans, Mexican exports The Colombian government’s fiscal plans due to be released later today are likely to see a much less ambitious budget deficit target and a suspension of the fiscal rule, which will raise further... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BOJ will still see inflation risks tilting higher The Bank of Japan meets next week with domestic data mixed and trade headwinds significant. It won’t consider hiking this time, but we don’t think – as many now do – that the Bank won’t move again... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Recovery appears to be stumbling in the Antipodes New survey data suggest that business conditions in Australia continued to deteriorate in May. Moreover, with firms also reporting a renewed easing in cost and price pressures, risks are tilting... 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch BOE Watch: Risks shifting towards UK rates being cut below 3.50% The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 4.25% at its meeting on Thursday 19th June and will keep its options open for the subsequent meeting in August. But the recent falls... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: US protectionism just one of many challenges Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared a few months ago. But the economy will still struggle to eke out any growth this year. And while the rest of the region... 12th June 2025 · 21 mins read
